Hello fellow summoners!
Welcome to your monthly dose of shitty puns and HoH predictions. Sorry for the delay this month, got a bit sidetracked.
We will evaluate the possible options for the upcoming HoH. It will be the HoH number 82.
This month's element: Dark!
The following table is made for mobile users since it is easier to scroll right there. PC users and white space lovers can (and probably should) simply skip it, the 'old' version is below.

Family	Assassin	Barbaric King	Blade Dancer	Boomerang Warrior	Brownie Magician	Chakram Dancer	Death Knight	Dice Magician	Dryad	Elven Ranger	Gargoyle	Giant Warrior	Horus	Jack-o'-lantern	Joker	Kobold Bomber	Kung Fu Girl	Lich	Magic Knight	Magical Archer	Mermaid	Neostone Fighter	Nine-tailed Fox	Phantom Thief	Pierret	Pirate Captain	Poison Master	Rakshasa	Samurai	Sniper Mk.I	String Master	Succubus	Sylph	Sylphid	Undine
Nat3 counterpart										Yes		Yes								Yes
Fusion
Direct repeat	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes						Yes		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Family repeat in last 9 months						Yes					Yes					Yes			Yes				Yes						Yes
Months since last family HoH	9	15	-	14	30	4	23	10	19	-	1	-	27	16	21	3	31	32	2	-	38	22	6	24	42	49	-	11	5	17	-	20	44	12	46
Eligible for this HoH			Yes	Yes					Yes				Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes					Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

Family	Nat3 counterpart	Fusion	Direct repeat	Family repeat in last 9 months	Months since last family HoH	Eligible for this HoH
Assassin			Yes		9
Barbaric King			Yes		15
Blade Dancer					-	Yes
Boomerang Warrior					14	Yes
Brownie Magician			Yes		30
Chakram Dancer				Yes	4
Death Knight			Yes		23
Dice Magician			Yes		10
Dryad					19	Yes
Elven Ranger	Yes				-
Gargoyle				Yes	1
Giant Warrior	Yes				-
Horus					27	Yes
Jack-o'-lantern			Yes		16
Joker					21	Yes
Kobold Bomber			Yes	Yes	3
Kung Fu Girl					31	Yes
Lich					32	Yes
Magic Knight			Yes	Yes	2
Magical Archer	Yes				-
Mermaid					38	Yes
Neostone Fighter			Yes		22
Nine-tailed Fox			Yes	Yes	6
Phantom Thief			Yes		24
Pierret			Yes		42
Pirate Captain					49	Yes
Poison Master					-	Yes
Rakshasa			Yes		11
Samurai			Yes	Yes	5
Sniper Mk.I					17	Yes
String Master					-	Yes
Succubus			Yes		20
Sylph					44	Yes
Sylphid					12	Yes
Undine			Yes		46

We are left with the following 14 possible candidates for this month's HoH before assessing their overall strength and usability:

• (Blade Dancer)
  
• (Boomerang Warrior)
  
• (Dryad)
  
• (Horus)
  
• (Joker)
  
• (Kung Fu Girl)
  
• (Lich)
  
• (Mermaid)
  
• (Pirate Captain)
  
• (Poison Master)
  
• (Sniper Mk.I)
  
• (String Master)
  
• (Sylph)
  
• (Sylphid)
  

Factoring in how 'good' and overall useful those mons are, we will now determine their chances:

• (Blade Dancer)

The odds: Unlikely
The logic: Not her light sister but can be a fun toy

• (Boomerang Warrior)

The odds: Nope
The logic: No way they are going to strip the exclusiveness from her

• (Dryad)

The odds: Bit more on the low side
The logic: Used to have a weird niche mechanic but can be used in ToA Hell now. Still overshadowed by her light sister though

• (Horus)

The odds: Not that bad
The logic: Okay he can get ATB, he can do decent damage, and he can mess up turn order. But that only works if facing Tiana and with the buffs to all the strippers that doesn't happen as often anymore.

• (Joker)

The odds: Very low
The logic: Okay so they buffed his brother

• (Kung Fu Girl)

The odds: So-so
The logic: You know what's even better than RNG? Two layers of RNG. And more people have Vanessa/Psama than her anyway these days lol

• (Lich)

The odds: Not that high
The logic: Once quite good at killing his large version but nowadays just a GW monster and Khmun Skogul Vigor are everywhere so you see less of him. Still strong though

• (Mermaid)

The odds: You betta don't bet on it
The logic: Com2uS handing out free immunity during a pandemic? Yeah this doesn't sound like reality to me either

• (Pirate Captain)

The odds: More on the low side
The logic: Still a pretty strong ATB increase

• (Poison Master)

The odds: Decent
The logic: Unlike his passive. Not bad in theory as a Loren or AI abusing system

• (Sniper Mk.I)

The odds: Not bad
The logic: Interesting mechanic and could work with Vigor Molly

• (String Master)

The odds: Nah
The logic: The family has the problem of a no-turn mechanic in a turn based game but at least the L&D ones make some sense. One of the elemental ones will be the first HoH

• (Sylph)

The odds: Medium
The logic: Can be used in ToA Hell but his cold brother is better in most stages. Except Molly Sniper because fuck that

• (Sylphid)

The odds: Pretty low
The logic: If she's your answer to "Who cares?" then your English needs some work. Yeah that was officially my worst joke ever. Yet. Brace yourselves ;P Anyway, great pair for Mo and Harmonia. Needing nothing but HP to nuke is valuable
We will also consider the approach of predicting the next HoH based on the average distance between HoHs of the same family.
Here is the plot showing the time distance between the HoHs of one family. The current average between two HoHs of the same family is 26.04 months. Based on this data, the upcoming HoH would be the Dark Horus. Not that unlikely but I'd say it's probably not him.
TL;DR: Most likely candidates are Poison Master, Sniper Mk.I, and Sylph.
Your thoughts/wishes on this month's HoH?

Well done. Somehow, against all odds, a large number of you autistic fucks have made some life changing gains on GME. This post is in no way encouraging you to sell your positions or even open new ones. Thats because I'm not a fiduciary advisor and know fuck all about what you should or shouldn't do. All I will say is welcome to all the new members out there and if there's one piece of advice I can give you, its to trust your gut.
Now lets get into it. This post is my DD that I wanted to share on $VIRT, not because I am recommending you to do anything, but because I enjoy researching shit because its fun and I figured this would help organize my thoughts.
So lets get into it. I'm sure most of you have noticed the new exposure this sub has been getting on a worldwide scale. If you've been here even since Dec. in 2020, you'd notice this sub has even gained over 6M subscribers in the last month. I'm not going to tell you I've been around since the start, I've just been lurking and a post or comment every once and a while since I started following a few years ago. The sub count really means fuck all to be honest, the real numbers that are important here are the #'s of new retail traders joining the markets while bringing in new money by doing so. Give this Reuters article a quick read (promise it will only take 5 minutes, 10 if you're a true retard): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-numbers-idUSKBN29Y2PW
For those who are lazy fucks who don't want to open the article: with no fee trading, retail traders have flooded the market. To what extent you may ask, and why the fuck does this matter? Well back in Jan 2020, before the March crash, retail made up ~17% of trades on the market. By July/August, this shot up to 25%. Some analyst in this article noted their prediction for 2021 is 30%+ of volume will be made up of retail. THE TREND IS INCREASING for those of you who couldn't pass your 2nd grade math class. So why did i even mention GME to start? Well according to an analyst from Piper Sandler, this past Wednesday set a new record for volume traded for US cash equities of 24.5 Billion . Thats volume traded, not a $ amount. Options volume also hit a record high in volume at 57.1 Million. For both stocks and options, this supposedly is double the record in volume traded in a single day from 2020, or triple in 2019. One last important #, its estimated amongst the top 6 brokers, there are 100 Million+ retail traders. 100 Million thats a fuck ton of regular Joes' and retards joining the game gambling away their $600 stimulus checks.
TLDR: Retail trading #s are going the fuck up, and fast. This in turn mean a fuck ton more volume traded on the market.
OK Cool. Why does this matter? Well aside from Melvin Securities (Melvin Capitals Market Makescum of the earth), there are other Market Makers that do the same thing (provide liquidity to brokers allowing autists like us to buy and sell stocks and options). Companies like $VIRT, Virtu Financial, that are publicly traded. Lets take a look at the breakdown of trading volume across market makers, Brokers, Liquidity providers etc:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BjrX0/1/
$VIRT has showed a consistent increase in trading revenue and EPS since their IPO in 2015. This growth is due to various synergies on their platform from previous buyouts, volume spikes (due to volatility) and you guessed it, an increased amount of retail trading. According to their 2019 full year report, they supported approximately ~30% of all retail trading. This is up from 25% the previous year. https://s21.q4cdn.com/422114427/files/doc_financials/2019/aVirtu_2019_AnnualReport_Final.pdf
Ok so why does all this matter, if this trend in increased retail trading continues, that means more trading income for $VIRT. And turn, higher earnings. Why? This is because those Ask/Bid spreads you see when buying/selling are typically provided through market makers. They make money off of these spreads. 1 cent here or there, maybe a little more for wider spreads times millions of trades/day equals out to big money for them. An even bigger wet dream would be if Melvin Securities went under and that portion of the market making sector being open for the taking. Then again, that probably won't happen but regardless Fuck Melvin.
So what else? $VIRT has provided a $0.24 dividend for 22 consecutive quarters and also announced $100 million in buy backs on their Q3 report released in Nov 2020, also making a statement to "meaningfully enhance shareholder returns" with additional buybacks and dividends moving forward. And a shout out to the true gambling addicts who love earnings plays, $VIRT has earnings coming up on Feb 11th. Thats this Thursday. Lets even take a look at their revenue growth. According to their 2019 full year report, Virtu took in $1.5B in revenues. Fast forward to the first 3 quarters of 2020, that totals over $2.5B and we still even haven't seen Q4 results yet. While yes, the volume in March/April played a part in this, Q3 revenues were still over $650M, which is still over a third of the full 2019 year. Their current market cap is only ~$5.4B with a PE of 6.6. Talk about nice returns. Time to bet on the Casino instead sitting down at the fucking roulette table.
TLDR: More retail trading = more $$ for market makers like $VIRT
Positons: https://imgur.com/a/4QJA38m
Planning on converting to shares for long term holding with an eventual PT of $100 by end of 2021.

So then, enough teasing about ass-kicking happening. Tome to let the maniacs off the leash and see what happens. Hopefully, it would just mean more bodies on the pile.
And what of our dear Sapphire, what might she be up to in the big city. Are they gonna blow something up with the strange inventions, perhaps get assaulted in the night, or are they about to change the world forever?
Only one way to find out. So let's get into the properly sanitized chapter, courtesy of the editing duo.
ko-fi For having a pretty picture commissioned.
Sapphire
Wiki
First Previous Next
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Chapter 81: Bravo Six, Going Dark
‘This is a terrible idea,’ Tom thought to himself as he was walking towards the keep. Jarix had gotten in as close as he and Zarko dared to set Tom down, but he still had over two kilometers to walk. To make things even better the terrain was rocky and hilly. That was, of course, what had allowed Jarix to get so close, so it was a double-edged sword. This wouldn’t be possible to do at Bizmati Keep where it was just smooth grass as far as the eye could see in every direction.
Zarko and Jackalope needed the rest, so the fact that he would need at least an hour to get into position did give them time for a quick power nap. He was now carrying Unkai’s grenade too since the healer would hardly need it. He would need to do some scouting first as well, to try and figure out what they were up against.
He wished he had some of that trail snack right about now, not to mention dinner. The kids had been given all the rations they had and were staying with Unkai and Kalestine at the clearing for now. Poor bastards more than deserved it after all.
Kalestine had eventually woken up again; it took nearly an hour though, and she was damn near hysterical when she did. Apparently in all her years she hadn’t fainted before and thought she had died or something. When pressed, she made it very clear she couldn’t help the last girl. By the time she would have regained enough of her strength to try again, it would be far too late. Apparently, even magic resurrection was time-sensitive. Tom wasn’t sure if it was because she was scared to try again rather than actually not being able to do it.
‘Why couldn’t it just be a matter of blood in a bottle and Bob’s your uncle,’ Tom cursed as he trekked. Still, he needed to remember what he himself told Jarix. ‘We didn’t lose a kid, we saved five. And now it’s time to save some more.’
He had come across a small muddy puddle and decided to do some redecorating. He couldn’t have a torch light reflecting off his shiny steel armor plates after all. Shiva would likely be furious, but they were hardly on the best of terms right now and he didn’t give a damn.
Moving on from the muddy puddle, he reckoned he should be getting close around now. Zarko had given him some landmarks to work off of, and combined with his compass, unreliable as it was around here, he was fairly sure he was on the right track. The sound of a distant shrieking roar would seem to confirm this. He scrambled up the next hill, laying flat on the top peering out into the clear moon-lit night. He was confronted with the silhouette of Deriva Keep, and it was far from abandoned.
There were torches lit all around the base of the keep, which illuminated some rather massive shapes. He brought out the binoculars since he was still over half a kilometer away. The torches were doing a shitty job, but Tom could just about make out the general shape. The hulking creature looked more like a giant mutated bat. The thing had arms like a gorilla and almost looked like a bulldog in the way it walked on its clearly winged forearms. It paced around slowly, looking towards the keep at a safe distance. There were a few darklings to be seen, not that many though. But the lower door to the keep was smashed in, in a far too familiar fashion.
The keep sat atop a rocky outcropping overlooking a gorge. Tom couldn’t see how deep it was from here, but it looked rather wide. As he scanned around trying to see what was happening down there, he spotted at least one more of the weird mutant bat things. A way’s away from the keep a few more torches could be seen standing around, seemingly out in the middle of nowhere.
On closer inspection, he saw, much to his displeasure, what looked like a pack of vargulfs all sleeping. They looked like they were chained up too. Judging by the distance to the keep he guessed they were scared of arrow fire from the slits. ‘Someone is still fighting then.’
Tom lowered the old NVG’s that were likely about to save his life, mumbling to himself, “Payback time.” As if that would somehow make this a less stupid idea. He still had a while before Jarix would kick off the show. With his cloak made to look like dark-grey rocks, he made his way closer. It took a bit before he started picking up targets with his goggles. A few sentries seemingly posted around a perimeter. They were moving back and forth, silhouetting nicely against the torches at the base of the keep.
He decided to observe some more from a distance. It would most likely be game over if he got caught before Jarix came in. He was under no illusions as to his ability to outrun these bastards, and if Jackalope was right about the vargulfs, he wouldn’t be hiding for long either. He could hear the sound of fighting from inside. Mostly shouting at this range.
‘Hang on in there, just a little longer. We got you,’ Tom tried to convince himself. This needed to work. Otherwise, all that would happen was a repeat of Hylsdal. Likely only worse though. There was no way they had anything underground, built on solid rock like this. Not to mention, stopping them here or at least fucking them up enough would hopefully save home entirely. That was worth the risk. He would not allow another situation like last time if he could possibly avoid it.
The thing about darklings being slaved to orders seemed to be accurate, as the guards kept walking their patrol route without deviation going back and forth back and forth not saying a thing. His watch said he had been observing for half an hour when a group of six darklings exited the keep, shields raised above their heads to cover them. Some of them looked bloodied and bruised, one was limping quite badly even.
As if by clockwork, five darklings got up from where they had been sleeping in armor and everything. Apparently going to replace the tired and wounded.
‘The bastards are fighting in shifts... So much for tiring them out then. That sleeping area does make a nice target though.’
As he glanced around trying to come up with a plan of attack, a third of the massive bat things emerged from the far side of the keep. Giving a total of three. All stalking around at a safe distance.
‘Okay three big ones, the main evil guy is likely inside, 4 sentries, a lot sleeping, unknown within the keep. That’s bad.’
‘Guard dog things sleeping and only a few sentries that’s good.’ In fact, looking closer, the sentries seem to be looking towards the keep rather than outwards. ‘Fuckers think they are gonna be left alone?’ Tom questioned. That seemed rather ridiculous to him. He sure as fuck wasn’t complaining though.
He had his targets. When Jarix came in, the sleeping spot was going to be served with a grenade. Hopefully, Jarix would draw off the big things or at least some of them. Then, it was the sentries and vargulfs. Hopefully he could get that done before whoever was in charge made it out of the keep. He was betting on them not figuring out he was down here, at least not immediately. If there was a dark knight he certainly couldn’t be allowed to see the muzzle flash. Hopefully, they would believe the grenade was Jarix or something.
__________________________________________________________________________________
“You lot are hard to get a hold of, you know that right?” Maiko was clearly making having to sit in a tavern waiting for them to get back seem worse than it was. He looked rather comfortable with his legs up on the table.
“I’m sorry, but we had some business to attend to,” Dakota replied dismissively. “What do you need us for?”
“Hashaw wants a meeting in private. The court has agreed to fast track the case to get her back in the field as soon as possible.”
“Is that good or bad?” That's a good thing right Balethon questioned.
“Gives the Flaxens less time to figure out smart things to do. Hashaw certainly seemed pleased. I don’t really know anything about legal things though.” Sapphire could see that being the truth. Not that she knew much about it either of course. “She was hoping you would join her after dinner.”
“Certainly… where exactly?” Dakota had to ask. That was a good question: Where would Hashaw even live? Sapphire almost expected her to live at some form of barracks, perhaps she didn't ever leave Baron's quarters.
“At home, of course. Don’t worry, I’ll take you there. Be warned, it's basically just a very fancy military base and, well, her family is there so just behave like you are on the parade ground and you will be fine.”
“That’s… mighty generous of her. We’ll just get a quick meal and a wash then we’re good to go,” Dakota replied, looking back to Sapphire with a slightly strained smile. It had been a long day already. This was likely important though. ‘Just like everything right now,’ Sapphire sighed to herself. Still, thus far it had been a good day. Hopefully that trend would continue.
They had discussed the formalities with Maiko over dinner; to Sapphire’s surprise, there was quite a lot to worry about.
“Inside it is either Colonel Hashaw, Colonel, or Victoria to you. Her mother, Lady Hashaw, is to be addressed as such. Likewise with Lord Hashaw. The other members of the family may introduce themselves with their first name. If so, use that, otherwise, refer to them by rank. Be warned though, Victoria isn’t the only colonel in there.”
“I can’t remember the rank of everyone,” Balethon protested. Sapphire had to agree, Makio had recited quite a few names which may be present this evening and made it clear that likely wasn't even all of them.
“You don’t need to, they wear uniform at all hours of the day.” Sapphire was about to protest the fact they were apparently in armor when indoors before she looked down at her own breastplate. Maiko apparently caught that glance though. “They aren’t in armor, I said uniform, as in family uniform. There is not a single person in that family that isn’t military in some capacity. Be it Royal Guard, City Guard, or Militia, or whatever.
Sapphire imagined what a nightgown with rank tabs might look like for a second before snapping back to the conversation. “Hashaw has told me she let the family know who Tom is. I’m guessing both the lord and lady have read her report as well. So keep to that, okay?” Maiko continued, looking around at them.
“Certainly. See you out front in a bit,” Dakota replied, getting up to go freshen up, Sapphire joining her upstairs.
Sapphire hadn’t been quite sure what to expect. A massive mansion with guards wearing armor emblazoned with Hashaw’s family insignia was not it though. It was a massive building. From above it had seemed to be laid out in a U shape, with three rectangular buildings and a huge courtyard in the middle with what Sapphire guessed were hangars for dragons.
“How big is her family?” Balethon questioned, looking at the massive building. Clearly in awe.
“Don’t actually know. At least a hundred though, that’s for sure,” Maiko replied as he approached the guards. “Sup. Got some guests for Victoria.”
“Yeah, we heard, come on in,” one of the guards responded in a very informal tone. Sapphire guessed that standing guard for a family of entirely military people was maybe not the most stressful job in the world, at least when they were not around. Colonel Hashaw certainly hadn’t given Sapphire the impression of not being able to handle herself thus far.
The inside of the building was decorated much like what Sapphire had expected though, which was to say paintings of what was likely important family members everywhere, with more armor and weapon racks strewn about than some actual armories she had seen.
They had been greeted by Victoria, dressed in some fine robes, though as Maiko had said she was still wearing her three golden bands of a colonel on her shoulder. She was flanked by two people: an older gentleman in purple trimmed robes for some reason and another man, who looked to be about Hashaw’s age, also in the family robes and wearing the tabs of a major.
“Good, you could make it. I was starting to worry a certain someone got their claws into you.”
“Not yet. They tried to bribe us though,” Dakota responded with a courteous chuckle.
“I can’t say that I’m surprised. This is my husband Major Hashaw.”
The man held out his hand to shake for the three of them. “Please, call me Ulrik,” he went with a smile.
They all shook his hand, making their introductions. He seemed like a nice enough man to Sapphire. Firm handshake too.
“And this is Sir Viantius. He is the family lawyer.” ‘They had an actual lawyer,’ Sapphire thought to herself. She hadn’t even thought about that. Hands were shaken once again, pleasantries exchanged.
“I think the upstairs lounge is available. I say we make ourselves comfortable,” Victoria went, turning to lead the way up the stairs.
They had been served sweetened tea as they sat discussing the bitch’s downfall. The lawyer, Viantius, certainly believed they had a solid case, even if Sapphire didn’t understand half of the terms he used most of the time.
“In all, I don’t see any way she could be argued as not guilty. Not against the word of so many people. The fact you three and your keep have recently been praised by the king himself definitely have the Flaxens worried. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have tried to buy you off.”
“We do our best,” Dakota replied, clearly pleased with that compliment.
“That leaves the matter of punishment. The Flaxens aren’t poor. There is a good chance they will try to go for monetary compensation. Unfortunately, I doubt an execution is possible. Her behavior isn’t traitorous.” Sapphire wasn’t entirely sure she agreed on that front. Stabbing someone in the gut after being let in the door seemed pretty damn treasonous to her.
“Then I say we try to lock her up for as long as possible,” Dakota concluded, clearly not entirely pleased.
“Would you prefer a comfortable cell in exchange for more time?” Viantius questioned.
“As long as possible. Let’s make it so her family will forever have their lady in jail,” Dakota replied. They had hoped for execution, but they knew it likely wasn’t gonna happen. The notion that she would bring shame to her family for the rest of her life would have to do.
“In that case, I think we can get a few decades at least. With some rather considerable compensation to be paid towards the affected parties, though I’m sure the Flaxens will take care of that part. We should push for jail time. As for Dashu’s actions, we will likely be able to secure some additional damage payment from this same case due to the two’s… close relations.”
Profiting from that particular situation didn’t sit entirely well with Sapphire. Still, Esmeralda deserved whatever they could get for her.
“How much money are we talking?” Balethon questioned.
__________________________________________________________________________________
As Tom lay waiting in the bush he had found, he wondered what his chances of pulling this off were. He had promised Kiran he would be home in a few days; hell, he had promised that to most of the kids. He reckoned his odds were at least fair though. This seemed like a very bad idea, but he had air support, the element of surprise, much better equipment, and crucially was up against an enemy who had likely never even heard of a sniper, night vision, or explosives for that matter. Hell they didn't even have a proper perimeter. He was currently no more than 20 meters from the sleeping fuckers and they hadn’t noticed a thing, not even the vargulfs had stirred.
'Worst guard dogs in history those things. Come on Jarix, where are you?’ he thought to himself, scanning the sky for any sign of the opening shot. He had the first grenade in his hand, fuse out and lighter ready. Those sleeping darklings were never gonna be waking up again. He just hoped Jarix would go for one of the big bastards so they could spread the love around.
The enemy apparently saw Jarix before Tom did, as one of the big bat things started making a high-pitched screaming sound, the darklings starting to stir. That would do for Tom as lifted his goggles to judge the range in the moonlight, getting to his feet. Then he lit the fuse and threw, hitting the deck.
He kept watching as the camp sprung into a flurry of activity. Then the beam of bright blue light smashed into the big bat thing that had sounded the alarm. It had already started beating its wings to climb vertically into the sky. That was a slow procedure though, and Jarix took full advantage, nailing the fucker in the upper torso.
If Jarix’s Lightning breath looked awesome during the day, it was in a whole different league at night. Tom almost wished he had taken a photo or something as the lightning arched out in all directions, the thunderclap deafening even for him. The still twitching husk of the clearly very fucking dead bat thing fell back down in a smoking heap, head dangling by a thread. Tom restrained himself from shouting out a “Fuck yeah!” Then the grenade went off in a bright orange flash of fire. He instinctively ducked his head, looking down into the ground. He felt bits and pieces come raining down around him, including some very wet sounding thumps.
The noise that followed was otherworldly, the distorted voices of the darklings screaming out into the darkness. Tom stayed put for a second, lowering his goggles to see what the two other bat things were doing. They were both scrambling to get airborne, apparently not waiting for what was left of the darklings on the ground to get on. To his surprise though, they didn’t turn to follow Jarix. In fact, it looked like they were running away?
‘Oh they think there are two dragons out there, brilliant, right, next phase.’ Tom got up to a crouch, shouldering the rifle, clicking the scope to the lowest light setting, and looking for where the sentry to his right should be. They appeared to have frozen, not being able to figure out what to do, looking around frantically. He lifted the goggles again, taking aim at the bastard. The range wasn’t even fifteen meters, making a nice easy target even in this light.
Tom’s rifle rang out with a crack, taking it in the chest, the Darkling folding over forwards and dropping to the ground. He ran the action, coming around to the one who should be on his left. Predictably it was right where it was supposed to be. It had at least gotten moving though, sprinting towards where the others had been sleeping. It was a bit further away but still not a hard shot. The round went a little low, catching it in the abdomen and causing it to shriek and scream as it fell, but it was down nonetheless. It wasn’t like they didn’t know they were under attack anyway.
Then, Tom turned his attention to the pack of 5 vargulfs. Those needed to die if he was to get away. Well, now there were 3 and they were pulling on their chains to get free, likely all wounded by the blast. ‘How convenient,’ Tom mused. He had wanted some payback for his first flight for quite a while, and he had three shots left.
With an empty rifle and no vargulfs left breathing, he made his retreat into the night, flicking the goggles back down and moving in a low crouch. He fumbled with reloading the rifle while he moved. He wanted more range before whoever was in charge of this shit show figured out what was happening and decided to come looking for him. He was feeling really damn proud of himself until an arrow struck the ground to his left, followed quickly by another one in front of him.
‘Arh shit! They fucking saw me!’ The third one actually hit, bouncing oh his left pauldron. ‘Thanks, Shiva.’ He picked up the pace, running to get into cover, several more landing around him. They weren't being particularly accurate though. Tom prayed they were just firing at where they had seen his muzzle flash. It was pretty fucking crazy they were up and firing after taking a damn grenade in their sleep.
Hopefully that would mean he just needed to move to lose them though, so he kept the pace. There was hardly any grass around, mostly just rock and gravel, as he made his way into the night, the arrows eventually ceasing. He moved around to the right of the keep to give himself a better shot on the main door, doing his best to make as little noise as possible while moving quickly. He found a small ridge in the terrain that he crouched down behind, steadying the rifle on the stone and finishing his reload. He kept the goggles down, scanning around for targets. As one, a large group appeared to make for the base of the keep. All of the congregating darklings had shields raised above their heads.
‘Here comes the big guy,’ Tom thought to himself. Making ready to ruin the bastards day. ‘remember nasty armor head or neck shot’
That was when he heard the whoosh of huge diving wings behind him. He turned to see Jarix coming back down for another run, apparently having circled around. He was coming down low and fast, heading right for the keep.
He seemed to be lining up for a shot at the keep, crackling arcs coming from his mouth. Then Tom spotted a black shape coming down from above. Jarix didn't see it a moment too soon, bringing up his head and letting loose, with a crackling beam. Tom saw the dark form take the hit, center mass. The blinding flash and crackling lightning blinding him through the goggles. He winced in pain at the bright light, then he heard the smack of the two flyers colliding.
He couldn’t see a thing, so he just hit the deck and crossed his fingers. He heard Jarix come roaring above him, so Tom guessed he had been the heavier of the two. Then came the gut-wrenching crunching sound as either Jarix, the bat thing, or both hit the ground in front of him.
‘This was a shit idea.’ Tom cursed himself as he fumbled around for his rifle, blind as a bat.
__________________________________________________________________________________
So then operation sneaky breaky didn't quite go as planned. Is it gonna cost them dearly or are they gonna be able to wiggle out of this shit show? And what of the dealings in the capitol is jail time far too easy for the bitch (fuck yeah it is) or should they just take the money and use it to make more DAKA? do as always let me know down below
Until next time have an awesome day.
ko-fi For having a pretty picture commissioned.
Sapphire
Wiki
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NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

After a full 256 game NFL season, the playoffs have finally arrived. Unique from other major sports, the NFL playoffs do not feature a traditional bracket. Instead, the NFL is structured so that the highest seed in each conference plays the lowest remaining seed in the same conference. For example – as the #1 seed in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers will face the lowest remaining seed after this weekend. Depending how the games shake out, this could be the Los Angeles Rams, Washington or Tampa Bay. The other two remaining teams in the NFC will play each other.
To accommodate for this added complexity and assess the likelihood of each team winning the Super Bowl, we turn to the Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations are an excellent tool to assess the likelihood of events happening when you are faced with a series of complex interactions or path dependent scenarios.
To estimate the probability of each team winning the Super Bowl, I simulated the playoffs 10,000 times using my Power Rankings that I developed for betting during the NFL season. (Note: in addition to my Power Rankings, I rely on empirical data to convert the Power Rankings into a win probability. This is a topic for another day, but I would be remiss if I did not mention this.)
Although I have the Chiefs as one of the favorites, I am not nearly as high on them as the betting markets. I give them a 20% chance (+397) of winning while many sportsbooks have them around +200 (which requires a 33.3% win probability to break even). I'm also low on the Buffalo Bills relative to the market, and they are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment:
Estimated Super Bowl Win Probabilities
So what is a good bet? Well – generally I see the most value on the Saints (widely available at +800) and Ravens (widely available at +1000) who (unsurprisingly) rank #1 and #2 in my Power Rankings. If you’re in the mood for a long shot, you could do worse than the Colts (available at +5000). I’ve converted my estimated win probabilities into odds below:
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Team	Odds
Kansas City Chiefs	+397
Green Bay Packers	+432
New Orleans Saints	+471
Baltimore Ravens	+694
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+926
Buffalo Bills	+1503
Seattle Seahawks	+1827
Indianapolis Colts	+3674
Pittsburgh Steelers	+3806
Cleveland Browns	+7043
Los Angeles Rams	+8303
Tennessee Titans	+8750
Washington Football Team	+21177
Chicago Bears	+26216

How strong is this model? It’s important to note that the above percentages represent my raw predictions and don’t include any market data. While my EPA model has been strong thus far, no model is perfect, and every model can benefit from weighing the market odds.
How should we bet these? SHOP. SHOP. SHOP. In futures markets, it is extremely important to get the best available line. THIS CANNOT BE OVERSTATED. Futures markets have notoriously high vig – so we must chip away at this vig by getting the best odds available. Case in point: across nine offshore sportsbooks, the average hold for Super Bowl futures is 17.4%. The synthetic hold for the best line at these nine sportsbooks: 6.9%. Add in the best available lines at the legal books in Colorado and the synthetic hold drops to 0.7%!
How much should we bet? My partner and I have already wagered over $1.0 million on the NFL this season, with successful results, and I'm confident in my numbers. However, you should always respect the market and recognize that no model is perfect and the market always prices in considerations your model may fail to take into account. Longshots of this nature only comprise a small amount of our portfolio. As a result, I don't recommend betting more than 0.5% of your bankroll on any futures bet.

Note: Made an edit 12 hours after posting here. I didn't like where Rondale was ranked so I did move him up two spots to more closely match his athletic profile to other players. To make someone upset, looking at these rankings and having spent more time thinking about it I may also move Smith down to 9. I'll leave it for now.
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2020 series:

• Notes on the 2020 Class
• Let's Talk: 2020 Rankings
• 2020 Post Combine Rankings
• 2020 Rookie Ranking Capstone

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2021 series:

• Notes on the 2021 Class
• Scouting List 2020
  • ^{Yes, an inconsistent title, it’s scouting the 2020 school year, but technically it’s 2021 prospects exclusively.}

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^{Quick note: I am not going to be providing a formula change relative to last year, and I'll be citing past work in this post rather than bringing in new concepts. To that point I suppose we will talk more about rankings today. I'm going to avoid tiering in this case but will certainly enter discussions below; I intend to describe more of my takes in the comments rather than the body of the post.}
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Contents:

• 2020 Season Recap
• Draft Capital Expectations
• Positional Rankings
• Top 12 Rankings

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2020 Season Recap

Like every year, the sands shift under our feet every couple of weeks. We had players opt out, we had players lose the season due to injury, we had players lose their careers due to medical events. We see this frequently, Mike Williams and DK Metcalf having their careers threatened by neck injuries, Ahmonn Richards losing his career due to a neck injury.
This year we nearly lost Justyn Ross due to a birth defect (and given Clemson’s history may be likely to return to school) and lost Journey Brown (my pre-season RB3) to a career ending heart defect. Throw in Ja’Marr Chase’s opt out--which gave Terrace Marshall the lead spot at LSU, Javonte Williams usurping Michael Carter and thundering into the top RB conversation, Kylin Hill opting out; the sands shifted.
For all that sand shifting, I do not feel my rankings in this iteration are changing much. There were some stand out performances that re-organized my WR rankings, and my uncertainty around Hubbard has only grown, but the complexion of the rankings are fairly solid now 8 months later.
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Draft Expectations

I reference my thought process around this in the 2020 Let's Talk under the heading "Setting Draft Capital Expectations." The cliff notes version is I currently use historical precedent to determine just how many players we can expect to go in rounds 1-3 each year. This was born out of countering the idiocy of takes like "30 wide receivers are going to go in the first 3 rounds" when there have never been more than 17 taken. Generally, we know that draft capital is a large portion of opportunity and the wide body of top ranked prospects any given year will come out of day 1 and day 2.
This doesn't mean we disregard everyone that falls out of that conversation--this year there are a number of players I am intrigued with that I currently don't project to have day 1 or day 2 draft capital--but it gives us a place to start.
Since 2013, we know on average 5 QBs, 7 RBs, 12 WRs, and 6 TEs go Day 1-2. Over that course of time we have not seen more than 8 RBs or 16 WRs go in the first two days of the draft and from past examination since 2002 it was only in 2007 that 17 WRs went in the first two days. The general thought here, like we observed in 2019, you may get a record 13 receivers go in the first 2 rounds but then you are only going to get 2 in round 3..on average. Any year can be an outlier, but we don't set expectations on outliers.
Having said all of this my current expectation for the coming class is:

Round	QB	RB	WR
1	3	0-1*	4-6*
2	1-2*	3-4*	4-6*
3	1-2*	3	2-3*
Total Taken	6	7	12

* My current read is there is a player(s) between rounds.
One quick note, every year there tends to be a small school guy that creeps into the day 2 conversation. This year, I wouldn't bet against 13-15 receivers being taken, however I believe there is value in being measured and conservative in these numbers as we must thin the herd and think about who deserves to be in the conversation instead of assuming every player that is ever mentioned is just in the conversation. That's how you get Equanimeous St. Brown Round 1 lock.
^{PS: Dang I did a pretty good job ballparking players last year. Maybe I should have spent more time on it this year to make sure I do just as well.}
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Positional Rankings

First, no, I don't talk about tight ends until after the draft. It's outside of my wheel house. A lot of people I respect LOVE Pitts though.
As I've spoken in the past, draft capital is a good guide, and often times out performs ADP in straight rankings, especially early in a players career (opportunity > talent, but talent eventually brings the opportunity). However, if we are looking at success rates, or the probability of finding success by draft position, we find there isn't a significant difference in rate of success between a runner taken 65th overall and a runner taken 90th overall. A receiver taken 25th overall or a receiver taken 65th overall.
More succinctly, if you know DK Metcalf is a hard worker, comes from a football family, has a production profile that mirrors hall of famers when extrapolated out and has gone to a good team--you ignore what people are saying and take the 9th drafted WR as your WR1. Take the 6th drafted WR (Michael Thomas) as your WR1. It may fail, the best odds in fantasy predictions are a coin flip, the BEST odds, so don't haggle between the difference of 20% and 15% odds.
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Quarterback

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 3)
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5)
3. Zach Wilson, BYU (Round 1)
4. Mac Jones, Alabama (Round 2)
5. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (Round 2)
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (Round 2-3)

Haven't fallen in love with a specific QB yet, but I think there is a lot of noise around each player. Find your favorite and cling to him.
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Running Back

1. Najee Harris, Alabama (Round 2)
2. Travis Etienne, Clemson (Round 2)
3. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (Round 2)
4. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (Round 3)
5. Michael Carter, North Carolina (Round 3)
6. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (Round 2)
7. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (Round 3)

Honorable Mentions:

• Trey Sermon, Ohio State
• Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
• Brian Robinson, Alabama
• Javian Hawkins, Lousville

I'm not saying there won't be first round runners, but if there are, I think they seep into the 20s or 30-32 like last year.
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Wide Receiver

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (Top 15)
2. Terrace Marshall, LSU (Top 40)
3. Justyn Ross, Clemson (Round 2)
4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (Top 40)
5. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (Top 20)
6. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (Top 30)
7. Seth Williams, Auburn (Round 3)
8. Elijah Moore, Ole Miss (Round 2)
9. Rondale Moore, Purdue (Top 40) [+2]
10. Chris Olave, Ohio State (Round 2)
11. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State (Round 2-3)
12. Dyami Brown, North Carolina (Round 3)

Honorable Mentions:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Dazz Newsome

Let it all burn.
Before everyone goes thermonuclear in the comments, 5-11 are a fairly large tier for me. I think Rondale Moore is roughly where Tyreek was coming out of college, more game tape being used as an extension of the ground game than as a true wide receiver. I think in the right situation (with the reading I've done on Rondale Moore) gives him a similar career arc to Tyreek. But if you are asking me to give up someone like the more technically savvy players ahead of him for Rondale and I need to hit on that pick? It's scary so far out from the start of the season.
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Top 12 Rankings (Superflex)

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
3. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
4. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
5. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
6. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
7. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
8. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
9. Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
10. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
11. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
12. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

I always do my top 12 rankings a little differently than my positional rankings because here I think player value has to come into play. I may not be as high on some people on Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore--but at some point you are taking him in a draft because of the value and the potential trade outs late in the summer and early in the season. It quickly becomes situational and an examination of upside.
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Let's talk.

The anime is just getting to the amazing info dump chapters of 956-957 so I figured it’s a good time to post what I make of the information learned from these chapters as well as how they may set the stage for our final war. Also, there is an additional fringe, bold theory of mine at the end :)
Foreshadowing of the Reverie events
First, I would like to begin with what I believe was some clever foreshadowing by Oda that the Reverie would have an incident that involved Alabasta, the military, the Rev Army, (and possibly) the Red Hair Pirates.
Post-Zou we get another classic worldbuilding chapter (823) that has many of the world’s characters getting ready to depart for the Reverie. Among them is the kingdom of Alabasta which features a shit ton of death flags for Cobra as well as this bit of dialogue from Igaram.
Take note of the three oddly specific things he’s worried about: A meteorite falling on Vivi, a monstrous bird carrying her away, and a sniper with their sights on her.
Conveniently enough, these powers all made a debut in the story shortly before in Dressrosa:

• Fujitora making a meteorite fall from the sky
• Karasu producing giant birds that carry Sabo away
• Usopp awakening his Observation haki to snipe Sugar from extremely far away

Why list these three specific things to worry about? I think Oda was using it as foreshadowing of the events that were to take place at The Reverie.
As we know from the break between Act I and Act II, Blackbeard relays the newspaper report that The Revolutionaries and the Admirals clashed at The Reverie. As you see in the background, you can see two of the three aforementioned people about to clash (Fujitora and Karasu).
In between Act II and Act III, we are relayed that there is a certain incident involving Alabasta, to which Shirahoshi is immediately worried about Vivi.
What of the Sniper? While Usopp was obviously not there, a certain mysterious pirate was. Who happens to have a highly skilled sniper in his crew who just happens to be Usopp’s father. While Yasopp hasn’t been shown at The Reverie, I think there may be a chance he could be the “sniper with sights on her'' (not as an enemy though imo) in Igaram’s worries. As Usopp said in Dressrosa: He’s best as a backup. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shanks has his sniper present as backup with all those tall buildings around in Mariejois.
So I believe Igaram’s seemingly hyperbolic worry about Vivi was foreshadowing that three factions representing these powers would clash with Vivi and Alabasta caught in the middle.

• The meteorite from the sky represented by Fujitora and the Marines
• The Birds carrying her away represented by Karasu and the Rev Army
• The sniper with their sights on her represented by Yassop and the Red Hair Pirates

All factions who were present at The Reverie.
What we know of the events that occurred at The Reverie
I’d like to take a moment to review what we know of what events occurred at The Reverie:

• The Gorosei speak of Cobra’s request of them and refer to him as a traitor.
• The one known as “Imu” has chosen Vivi’s picture as an apparent “light to erase from history”
• Shanks meets with the Gorosei to discuss a pirate
• The Admirals And The Revolutionary Army clashed in their mission to retrieve Kuma, as reported by Blackbeard
• The Shichibukai system was abolished
• There was a fatality, as reported by Morgans
• There was also an “attempted murder” as reported by Morgans
• Alabasta is somehow involved with the events that transpired, as reported by Garp
• Sabo is also involved in events, as we learn from the reactions of many people that know him, including shock of his comrades and sadness from his family.
• Whatever has transpired, Blackbeard decides to mobilize to claim something before the government can get their hands on it.
• Finally, Wapol also calls Morgans to leak some additional intel

More or less, I think these events are almost all directly connected. Here is what I believe happened:
Imu and the Gorosei decided it was time to eliminate Cobra and Vivi, as Alabasta houses the Ancient Weapon Pluton, they know of their allyship to the Strawhat’s who is led by a dreaded “D”, and Cobra is asking questions about the history they seek to hide. Ultimately making them a growing threat to their power. They even refer to their family as “traitors”
Shanks meets with the Gorosei to “talk to them about a pirate”. I believe this pirate to be Blackbeard. Similar to what he tried to do with Whitebeard, he is attempting to stop the Gorosei from doing anything hasty because of the threat Blackbeard poses and he’ll take advantage of any chaos, in true Blackbeard fashion.
The Revolutionaries attack at The Reverie in order to rescue their comrade, Kuma. The Gorosei see this as the perfect opportunity to enact their plans to eliminate Cobra and Vivi in the chaos and place the blame on the Revolutionary Army.
They succeed in killing Cobra (who has been riddled with death flags), this is the fatality that Morgans was talking about reporting. However, they were unsuccessful in eliminating Vivi, I believe that she escaped with The Revolutionary Army, however Sabo stayed behind to ensure their escape and was captured (he was determined to die beforehand). The government used this to say that they abducted heshe is missing following an attempt on her life (this is the “attempted murder” Morgans spoke of).
This is why the Revolutionary Army is shocked and Sabo’s family and friends are sad. For the Revolutionary Army, we were told by Koala that the enemy was the Celestial Dragons not the World Government. An important distinction, because news of Sabo killing Cobra and hurting/harming Vivi would certainly shock his comrades as it undermines their mission. However, they haven’t been able to contact them to confirm the facts. To his family, it looks like Sabo has assassinated a world leader and is now in the government’s hands making them insanely sad.
The importance of the World Government eliminating Cobra and Vivi and being able to successfully place the blame on the Revolutionary Army allows them to move into Alabasta unimpeded, giving them the opportunity to get one of their most sought after objectives, The Ancient Weapon Pluton. If it is known the World Government was responsible for their deaths, they wouldn’t have the excuse to move into the country. But being able to place the blame on the Revolutionary Army allows them to fill that vacancy without protest from others of it being some sort of coup.
Which brings me to my next point, this is why Blackbeard is mobilizing. He said he wants to get his hands on it before the Government does. He is speaking of Pluton. He knows the Government will look to seize control of Alabasta but he’ll claim the “prize” Pluton.
At this point, you may ask why the Government was trying to apparently cover up this news and not have Morgans publish it, given it paints the Revolutionary Army in the bad light. Well, I don't think they were actually trying to cover it up. The government has a number of powerful resources at their disposal but they sent a lone nameless fodder CP agent. Why? This is “Big News” Morgans we’re talking about, the man lives for scoops!!
Seriously look at this fearless man! In fact, CP-0 KNOWS that sending a lone agent shouldn’t intimidate him, Stussy is right here with him while they’re FALLING OFF A CASTLE as she remarks he shows no fear in the face of a scoop. The government trying to “cover it up” gives the story more legitimacy for him. They know sending a single nameless fodder agent won’t stop Morgans, they also know it’ll make him publish it as the biggest scoop!
This is important for the government because their ruse depends on a single piece of information from being known to the world at large: The Strawhat Pirates are allies of Vivi and the Alabasta Kingdom. If this were to get out to the world, the plan to frame the Revolutionary Army would fall apart given Luffy’s Father is the head and his sworn brother is the second in command. This is where the call from Wapol comes in...
Finally, Wapol calls Morgans to leak some info. I believe the info that Wapol has is that the Strawhat crew is allied with Vivi, as he ran into them on the way to Drum Island. He is one of the few in the world (who is not their friend) that knows of their relationship, since the government hid the Strawhat’s involvement at Alabasta. If you recall, it was Morgans who published the info that Luffy and Sabo were sworn brothers after Whole Cake Island. If this incident at The Reverie involves both Alabasta and Sabo, then Morgans learning that they're both allies of Strawhat Luffy flips the entire dynamic of the Revolutionary Army attacking the Alabastan royalty.
That is why they sent a single nameless fodder CP agent to “bribe” Morgans, to give him belief that this story worries them enough to hush. That action has more pull than the words of Wapol, who is pretty much known for being a punk ass. So even if Morgans was to learn of the SH-Alabasta connection, he wouldn’t necessarily run with it, as Wapol’s leak is simply hearsay compared to the action of the Government trying to cover it up. This is why Dragon and company accuse Morgans of lying when they read the news as it is something they would not do, however Morgans believes it to be true.
Shanks’ and Blackbeard’s Roles
The second part of the huge info dump chapters has a big focus on the Rocks crew and the history behind them. This is where I believe our other two major players in the final war come in: Shanks and Blackbeard.

1. Shanks is the son of Rocks D. Xebec
2. Blackbeard is the one who inherited the will of Rocks D. Xebec

I will start with Shanks, below are some relevant details I’d like to highlight:

• The Rocks Crew fell 38 years ago at God Valley in an incident that has been erased from the history books. Most notable about this incident is that Garp and Roger teamed up for it and it involved protecting Celestial Dragons. Shanks is slightly older than this at 39 years of age.
• In the Oden flashback Roger remarks it has been ages since he’s held a baby, to which Rayleigh responds it reminds him of “the good ole days” implying they once had a baby involved in their adventures or on the ship.
• During the ceasefire of the Roger vs Whitebeard duel, a newly recruited Teach asks his crew about Buggy and Shanks, to which they tell him despite their young age they have been on Roger’s ship for ages.
• Prior to his death, Roger tells Garp he has a child and he needs to protect him as the son does not carry the sins of the father and he deserves his own life. Garp then takes in his rival’s child and raises him as his own.
• When Whitebeard and Shanks meet up Whitebeard remarks that seeing Shanks’ face makes the scars he got from him ache. It is said that the Rocks crew got along terribly and were often very violent to each other, with even killing occurring within the crew.

If you recall, after Roger was executed one of the first objectives of the Government was to hunt down and end his bloodline. Prior to Roger, Rocks was the government’s biggest threat. I suspect that after Rocks D. Xebec fell 38 years ago, the World Government tried doing the same thing.
Enter Shanks. I believe that Shanks, in similar fashion to Ace, was the surviving heir of a bloodline the World Government wished to eliminate. Upon discovery of his existence Garp had Roger take him and raise him as to not kill a new born child. Shanks was then raised aboard Roger’s ship, this all comes full circle years later when Roger asks the same of Garp with a sheepish grin on his face, knowing he will agree to it.
Many believe that Blackbeard is the descendant of Rocks, while I believe he 100% does have a relation to Rocks it is not familial, instead he is the one who inherited Rocks will. After all, he seemingly has a lot in common with Rocks:

• Sengoku said Rocks’ ambition was to become King of the world and that he broke the world's taboos. Shanks suggests something similar about Blackbeard when he warns Whitebeard - he won’t ever stop aiming for the top. Blackbeard has also broken the world’s taboos by consuming two Devil Fruit which was previously unheard of.
• His ship is named Saber of Xebec, seemingly after Rocks D. Xebec
• His base of operations is on Hachinosu Island, which was the same place that the Rocks pirates were formed. Also the birthplace of the Davy Back Fight.

However, in One Piece, there is a pattern that the son does not inherit the will of their father and oftentimes it's the exact opposite:

• Monkey D. Garp - His son Dragon directly looks to overthrow the organization he works for and his grandson is also one of their biggest threats and aims to become Pirate King like his rival, Roger.
• Gol D. Roger - His son, Portgas D. Ace completely rejected him and dedicated his life to making his pirate rival, Whitebeard, the Pirate King.
• Kaido - His son Yamato literally wants to be Kozuki Oden, the only person to ever scar him and someone he only shamefully defeated through trickery.
• Oden - While his son Momonosuke seeks to carry out his father’s will, by an ironic twist of fate he ate a Devil Fruit that turned him into a Dragon, the same form as the beast who killed his father. (This is a little different, but worth pointing out imo)
• Shanks (D. Xebec)? - If what I believe to be true, Shanks is the son of Rocks D. Xebec, and was raised by his father’s rival Gol D. Roger, who he respects and reveres. Shanks seeks to stop Marshall D. Teach, the man who inherited his father’s evil will.

If Blackbeard is aiming for the top of the world like Rocks, what is it that Shanks is trying to accomplish?
Since Shanks accompanied Roger on his voyages everywhere except Laugh Tale, he at least knows important info like Shyarly’s predictions. I believe he is trying his best to buy time until it is Luffy’s time to bring change to the world.
It has become clear that the story is quickly approaching the important moment in time that Roger was “too early” for.
Shanks, aware of this, made this bet on Luffy as a child seemingly after hearing him say the exact same words Roger said (got a long ass post for that too lol).
Shanks aims to maintain balance in the world until it is Luffy’s time to carry out what his captain could not. Many of his actions seem to indicate he is trying to avoid catastrophic situations that could arise until that time comes and Blackbeard, inheritor of Rocks’ will, is the biggest threat to that:

• When Shanks warns Whitebeard about Teach, he doesn’t try to prevent a quarrel altogether but says it isn't time yet.
• When he saves Koby he mentions the importance of a few seconds.
• When he asks Teach if he wants to fight he laughs it off and he too seems to recognize it is not yet time.
• Most recently Shanks has gone to the Gorosei in an attempt to talk to them, most likely about Teach, in an attempt to maintain balance.

Conclusion - Setting the stage for the Final War
I believe it’s these events that will set the stage of our final war for our participants:

• The World Government
• The Revolutionary Army
• Blackbeard Pirates
• Red-Hair Pirates
• Strawhat Crew (and Grand Fleet)

With the Alabasta royalty out of the way and a convenient scapegoat in the Revolutionary Army, the World Government will move in on Alabasta under the guise of being helpful since their leaders are gone in an attempt to gain control of Pluton.
Blackbeard, inheritor of Rock’s will, who seems to have a lot of knowledge about the secrets of the world, will make his move to try to claim the weapon before they do. “If the government is going to take it (Alabasta) then I’ll claim the prize (Pluton)!”
The Revolutionary Army, who will be blamed by the World Government (and who was also once attacked by Blackbeard) will get involved in this quarrel as well in an attempt to keep the weapon out of their enemy’s hands, and to retrieve Sabo if he is indeed captured.
I think this will be where Shanks makes a move as well (which Oda mentioned in his year end message), in an attempt to maintain order until Luffy is ready and to stop Blackbeard from becoming too powerful, as he is the only one that seemingly knows what he is truly capable of.
We also have the internal split of the WG/CP-0/Akainu “absolute justice” type and the SWORD/Garp type of the military, who seem more noble in their intentions. All of these forces will collide in our final major confrontation.
And of course the Strawhat Crew. The Grand Fleet will get involved as well. A number of them fought alongside Sabo and The Revolutionary Army in Dressrosa and were also present at The Reverie, where they learned of Vivi and the Strawhat friendship. When they read the news about Alabasta and The Revolutionary Army they will know something is afoot and will be ready to spring into action.
Thank you for reading all of this, this is the end of the main body of the post. At the beginning I mentioned I also have a bold fringe theory. I typically like to throw these in at the end as they’re a little more out there but I still believe baby!
Without further ado I present to you below the Vivi Paw Paw Theory:
I will begin with the very first piece of evidence, this intriguing observation in SBS 59 and Oda’s equally interesting answer to it:

D: Odacchi! I noticed an amazing thing!!! It is that if you show the Straw Hat Devil Fruit users in numbers, it will be the numbers from 1~10!!
Luffy→Gomu Gomu (5.6.5.6.), Chopper→Hito Hito (1.10.1.10), Robin→Hana Hana (8.7.8.7.), Brook→Yomi Yomi (4.3.4.3.)
(1.3.4.5.6.7.8.10), but there is no (2.9), so is the one who ate the Nikyu Nikyu (2.9.2.9.) no Mi, Bartholomew Kuma, gonna be a Straw Hat next? Please tell me!!! P.N. SHANKUS.LOVE
O: WHAAAAAT?! (shock) Gosh that surprised me! Why was I surprised?! NO COMMENTTTTTTT!!!!!!!! NEXT!!

Oda’s answer is very interesting to say the least. We’ve seen him play with this (2.9.) thing with Kuma before as well:

• His bounty is 296,000,000
• His birthday is February 9th (2/9)

So the (2.9) fruit is missing from a member of the Strawhat Crew. I think this will go to Vivi, and I'll circle back to her (2.9.) connection in a bit...
“So u/africhic how the hell is Vivi gonna end up with the fruit?”
Since you just read through my long ass theory, I think the Revolutionary Army will be successful in retrieving Kuma, and that Vivi left along with them, aided by whatever sacrifice Sabo made that has been reported in the papers.
If you recall, while they’re going over their plan underground, Karasu mentions that even if they rescue Kuma he might not ever be able to return to being a human.
I believe this will be the case. They will rescue him and he’ll simply be a shell of a person. He is only programmed to take orders from the Government and the Celestial Dragons. While they may rescue him from slavery, there’s the chance he never returns to being human again.
This is where I believe the Revolutionary Army will make the decision to kill him and let him rest instead of existing as an empty husk. However, after the events of The Reverie they decide that it’s best to transfer his Devil Fruit power to someone who will make good use of it. Someone else who is also the leader of a nation that was allied with the government but is now an enemy in their eyes...Princess Vivi!!!
Just like with the Mera-Mera passing on from one sworn brother to the next, the Nikyu Nikyu will go from the leader of a WG allied nation who challenged them, Bartholomew Kuma of the Sorbet Kingdom to another leader who now faces their wrath, Princess Vivi of the Alabasta Kingdom.
While we as an audience still do not understand exactly how Devil Fruit powers transfer after death, it seems some characters have an idea:

• Most notably, Blackbeard is able to take Whitebeard’s power immediately after death. While this could be something unique to Blackbeard it has been demonstrated that they can take the fruit of others and give them to their own crew (shiryu gaining the Clear-Clear fruit)
• Caesar Clown also has shown some knowledge of this, as he seemingly left a bag of fruit on the raft rigged to fail when Smiley was to reincarnate. The fruit then transformed into a Devil Fruit, and he said he’d meet Smiley again.
• Vegapunk also seems to have an insane breadth of knowledge when it comes to Devil Fruit. However, we don’t have evidence of him knowing how they transfer.

My theory relies on someone in the Revolutionary Army having this sort of knowledge. Perhaps Dragon or someone like Lindbergh who seems to be a genius inventor.
This would complete the pattern of all the “numbered” Devil Fruit belonging to a member of the Strawhat Crew. So how does the (2.9.) fit in like I mentioned earlier?
Let us go way back to the Baroque Works Saga. The only reason why Vivi was able to: Meet up and ally with the Straw Hats to begin their journey Meet up on their way out to depart on great terms and establish a beautiful friendship
Is because of two men who chose the power of FRIENDSHIP over all:

• Mr. 2
• Mr. 9

It was because of Mr. 9 (and Ms. Monday) that Vivi was able to escape Mr. 5 and Miss Valentine. He chose their friendship and gave her an avenue to escape and reach the Strawhats.
It was because of Mr. 2 choosing his friendship with the Straw Hats that they were able to meet up with Vivi and say goodbye in this iconic scene, able to leave on beautiful terms.
What were the two numbers missing from the crew’s Devil fruit? 2 and 9.
Whose heroic actions enabled the friendship of the Strawhat Crew and Vivi to bloom? Mr. 2 and Mr. 9.
Luffy = Gomu Gomu (5,6 5,6)
Chopper = Hito Hito (1,10 1, 10)
Robin = Hana Hana (8, 7 8, 7)
Brook = Yomi Yomi (4,3 4,3)
Vivi = Nikyu Nikyu (2,9 2,9)
Thus completes my Vivi PawPaw Theory.
If you’re still here...thank you for reading all this lmfao

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tl;dr xGA is the best predictor (edit: best of these 3. I'm confident betting odds are better but I don't have that data). Last year's CS is a terribly distant 3rd. Be wary of Burnley and Sheffield.
Details (read this if you like stats modelling or want proof of my work):
Data
I compiled the data since the 2014-2015. For each non-relegated team for each season I took their previous season's GA, xGA, and CS and added there next year's CS as an additional column. This resulted in 85 data points (17 teams x 5 seasons).
Calculating the Regression Models
I then ran 3 simple linear regressions for each of the 3 predictors in question (GA, xGA, and CS) to predict next year's clean sheets. xGA is the best, followed by GA, and then CS. You can visually see the difference in these graphs for GA, xGA, and CS.
I then ran 2 multiple linear regressions, one with all 3 metrics and the other with GA and xGA combined (since they were vastly better than CS on their own). There was marginal improvement for the 2 variable (GA+xGA) model and a further marginal improvement with the 3 variable (GA+xGA+CS) model, however it's deceptive to compare r-squared values with models with different number of variables. This is because the more variables you have the more you will be curve fitting to your data sample. You can use a measure like AIC to be certain but just from inspection/experience you can tell that adding a 2nd and 3rd term will be more detrimental to general predictability than the benefit of the marginal r-squared gain.
Testing Non-linear Regression Models
I toyed with polynomial regression as well given the somewhat non-linear trend. There wasn't much improvement for the GA model and the CS model wasn't worth investigating any further. the xGA model was greatly improved as an xGA-squared/quadratic model as seen here. The model is probematic however because at higher xGA, cleen sheets would never logically be expected to increase as this model is predicting at very high xGA. This led me to explore a 1/xGA model since that function shape will always be decreasing unlike the parabolic shape of a quadratic model.
So I learned through all this you can actually do linear regression on a 1/x model by just inverting the variable. So I divided 1 by xGA to get "inverted xGA" and ran a linear regression on that. The result was very good and had a notable improvement over the standard xGA linear regression. Here's a graph to show the nicer fit of the 1/xGA model compared to the xGA linear model. The
I then needed to see if it was worth doing a polynomial 1/xGA model. It ended up being nearly identical so it's not worth the extra term/complexity.
Evaluating the models more thoroughly
Now that I've explored all the reasonable model possibilities I could think of I have to determine if the 0.44 of the polynomial(quadratic) xGA model is better than the 0.42 inverse (1/xGA) model. Like I said earlier it's a very prevalent mistake to compare r-squared values between models with different number of terms so I can't just say 0.44>0.42 since the polynomial xGA model has two terms (xGA² and xGA) vs. just the one (1/xGA). I would just disregard the polynomial model at this point because the positive swooping at high values of xGA makes no logical sense and the r-squared gain isn't that big but for completeness I calculated the AIC for all the models. And fuck me I guess cause the AIC says the polynomial xGA model doesn't add too much complexity with the additional term to outweigh it's r-squared gain.
Based on these two candidate models I look at the predictions for next season and the polynomial(quadratic) model makes no sense because a higher xGA should never predict higher future CS. Therefore the 1/xGA model reigns supreme and is the best* metric for future cleansheets!!! (*note: I would be suprised if betting odds weren't a better predictor but I don't have that data so couldn't test it)
Here are the 1/xGA model's predictions for next season
Python Jupyter Notebook
Here's where I did all the work if you want to see it or get some data from there

Hi! So.. over the span of like 4 days, I watched the whole season and I know it was aired like 2 years ago but I want to talk about it so badly!! First of all, I'm a casual follower of Iz*one so I knew already who made it and I also read a few things about the show being rigged so I also knew who were the ones that should have made it but didn't. This was the second time that I watched a survival show (the first one for me was I-land last year which I mostly watched while it was airing, just missed the 2 first episodes), so it was still kinda new to me.
First of all, since I knew who won I was more intrigued than anxious. It was kinda like reading a book when you already know how it ends, so I was more focused on the process rather than the final results. The most stressful part for me were the eliminations because I knew nothing but the final 12. I had no idea how far did the other trainees made it. My "bets" and hopes were there.
Watching it this way also made me really happy because I was really able to see their growth! there were like 3 that I was sure were debuting from the beginning (Wonyoung, Sakura, and Eunbi) regardless of the final lineup, but the progress of the other contestants made me feel so proud of them. I think the trainers were tough but they gave good advice, it helped the trainees improve so much! It was heartwarming to see them struggling while knowing how far they've made it! Like... you don't even know this is just the beginning for you!! ToT
On the other hand: of course, screen time was uneven but it was also inconsistent so that was lowkey a surprise. For example, Yujin was really highlighted at the beginning but towards the last episodes, I barely saw her. I was also surprised that Alexa was really barely showed. It impressed me how there were trainees that you could see were there but were shamelessly put out of the spotlight, it was a bit odd (for example Murase Sae in Rumor and Alexa in Psycho).
Still, overall I liked the "vibe" of the show. I did not see "evil" editing or fights or anything. If anything there were some disagreements but that could be expected! It had so many games and entertaining parts. I really liked that, it was a fun show to watch. The trainees were also super supportive of each other and tried so hard to communicate regardless of the language barrier, it was really nice to see that.
There are some things that I'd like to know but I'm not sure if I should post them in kpophelp because I want overall perspectives and comments rather than just answers so I'll just talk about them here. For example, at least where I watched it they did not say anything about contestants leaving. There were 96 at the beginning but then just 92, how come? I know Jurina left because of health problems, but it wasn't announced. Did they post something about it?
Also, for some reason, some contestants kept ranking high but I couldn't really understand why (don't wanna throw them under the bus so I can PM you if you're curious who I'm talking about). I think that maybe a particular fancam of them or a moment went viral so maybe that's why, but that's also something that you could just know if you were following the show at the time, so please let me know anything that could have happened that gave more "context" to the results (I'm guessing the Boombayah fancams went viral but I'm not sure. I'm talking about that sort of things!).
I'd also like to know a few things about the time they had to prepare each presentation. In I-land they had like a week to prepare each stage but I feel like in Produce they had more time. At the same time: how did the voting go? They voted for 12 of them until the 2d elimination when they started voting for 2? It was a bit confusing. Also, It was just for Koreans, or was it international voting as well? This is also a bit random but how did they choose who could go to the show?
I'm curious about the reception of the eliminations and the final lineup as well. I think that Kaeun not making it and Chaewon/Minju being in the lineup was the biggest plot twist, but I also felt like it made a bit of sense(? so maybe people were confused but also understanding of the situation. It really was heartbreaking to see Kaeun not making it, even worst knowing that it was just because of the votes being rigged but that also made me feel a bit of peace(? like it's frustrating but it's good to know that she always had the support. I really loved her and I can completely see why she was one of the favorites among the participants and the voters.
I'm especially proud of Yuri, Yena, and Chaeyeon, I think they would have been among my picks. I also loved Nayoung and Doah.
It's also nice to see that even though just 12 of them debuted as Iz*one, other contestants also made their debut. While I was watching the show I realized that Yiren and Sihyeon were in Everglow so that made me really happy. Gyuri felt familiar so I also realized she's now an actress! Are there any updates about all the current situation of the participants?
Anyway, that was it! I really enjoyed the show and I'm glad that I watched it just now because knowing the result and the rigging made it far less stressful (it also frustrated me a lot, I'm still mad about what happened to Kaeun). Thank you for reading if you made it this far! I'll be happy if you can comment as well and answer a few of my questions. I'd really like to know the opinion of people that watched the show while it was airing!:-)
ps. not sure if it's the right flair:-( sorry mods!
*edit to add a bit of criticism!
*edit 2: I was mostly curious about Shitao Miu since she didn't have much screen time. Also Miho and Miyu's peak right during the 3d elimination. Were they popular among AKB48 fans? Also, did Hyewon's popularity had anything to do with her doing the One Piece reference? I feel like that could have been viral but idk. I'm curious about Chaewon and Yuri as well... did they have strong fanbases?
I don't want to speculate who could have been rigged in since I know it wasn't the trainees fault and I do love Iz*ones's lineup, BUT I would appreciate posts about predictions after the final episode to see what people were thinking.
*edit 3: It did make me super uncomfortable though that even though the contestants were super young, there were a lot of sexy songs. I'm glad that people were criticizing that. From what I saw most of the people voting were teenagers so that puts my mind at ease a bit, but still, you could really see some older dudes among the public...