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submitted by Hi,
I've decided to steal
u/NH-INDY-99's format for a 3-round mock draft. Though a Watson and Stafford trade are inevitable I decided against mocking it.
**Round One**
1.01 JAX **Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Clemson**
1.02 NYJ ** Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon**
1.03 MIA (via HOU) **Devonta Smith (WR) - Alabama*
1.04 DET **Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State (TRADE)**
*Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 Third*
1.05 SF **Zach Wilson (QB)- BYU (TRADE)**
*SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.05*
1.06 PHI **Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State**
1.07 ATL **Kwity Paye (DE) -Michigan ** (TRADE)
*Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 fifth*
1.08 CAR **Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU**
1.09 DEN **Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech**
1.10 DAL **Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama**
1.11 NYG **Ja’marr Chase (WR)- LSU**
1.12 CIN ** Rashawn Slater (OT) - Northwestern** (TRADE)
*SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.12*
1.13 LAC ** Christian Darrisaw(OT) - Virginia Tech**
1.14 MIN **Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina**
1.15 NE **Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida**
1.16 ARI **Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) - USC**
1.17 LV **Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - Norte Dame**
1.18 MIA **Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas**
1.19 WSH **Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama**
1.20 CHI **Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama**
1.21 IND **Mac Jones (QB) -Alabama**
1.22 TEN **Greg Rousseau (DE) - Miami(FL)**
1.23 NYJ (via SEA) **Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia**
1.24 PIT **Liam Eichenberg (OT) - Norte Dame**
1.25 JAX (via LAR) **Jaelan Phillips (DE) - Miami (FL)**
1.26 CLE **Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa**
1.27 BAL **Patrick Jones II (DE) - Pitt**
1.28 NO **Tyson Campbell (CB) - Georgia**
1.29 GB **Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa**
1.30 BUF **Wyatt Davis (OL) - Ohio State**
1.31 TB **Christian Barmore (DT) - Alabama**
1.32 KC **Azeez Ojulari (DE) - Georgia**
**Round Two**
2.33 JAX **Jalen Mayfield (OT) - Michigan**
2.34 NYJ **Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama**
2.35 ATL **Aaron Robinson (CB) - UCF**
2.36 MIA (via HOU) **Joseph Ossai (DE/LB) - Texas**
2.37 PHI **Rashod Bateman (WR) - Minnesota**
2.38 CIN **Jayson Oweh (DE) - Penn State**
2.39 CAR **Nick Bolton (LB) - Missouri**
2.40 DEN **Carlos Basham Jr (DE) - Wake Forest**
2.41 DET **Jay Tufele (DT) - USC**
2.42 NYG **Quincy Roche (DE) - Miami **
2.43 CIN **Deonte Brown (OG) - Alabama** (TRADE)
*SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.12*
2.44 DAL **Trevon Moehrig(S) - TCU**
2.45 JAX (via MIN) **Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Penn State **
2.46 NE **Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida **
2.47 LAC **Landon Dickerson (IOL) - Alabama**
2.48 LV **Levi Onwuzurike (DT) Washington**
2.49 ARI **Rondale Moore (WR) - Purdue**
2.50 MIA **Travis Etienne (RB) - Clemson**
2.51 WSH **Walker Little (OT) - Stanford**
2.52 CHI **Terrace Marshal (WR) - LSU**
2.53 TEN **Kadarius Toney (WR) - Florida**
2.54 IND **Teven Jenkins (OT) - Oklahoma State**
2.55 PIT **Josh Myers (C) - Ohio State**
2.56 SEA **Shaun Wade (CB) - Ohio State**
2.57 LAR **Trey Smith (OL) - Tennessee**
2.58 BAL **Creed Humphrey (C) - Oklahoma **
2.59 CLE **Joe Tryon (DE) - Washington**
2.60 NO **Jevon Holland (S) - Oregon**
2.61 GB **Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) - Florida State**
2.62 BUF **Greg Newsome II (CB) - Northwestern**
2.63 TB **Trey Sermon (RB) - Ohio State**
2.64 KC **Ben Cleveland (OG) - Georgia
**Round Three**
3.65 JAX **Bubba Bolden (S) - Miami**
3.66 NYJ **Nico Collins (WR) - Michigan**
3.67 HOU **Hamilar Rashed (DE) -Oregon State**
3.68 ATL **Dylan Moses (LB) - Alabama**
3.69 CIN **Seth Williams (WR) - Auburn**
3.70 PHI **Paulson Adebo (CB) -Stanford**
3.71 DEN **Jabril Cox (LB) - LSU**
3.72 ATL **Kenneth Gainwell (RB) - Memphis** (Trade)
3.73 CAR **Dillon Radunz (OT) North Dakota State**
3.74 WSH (via SF) **Andre Cisco (S) - Syracuse**
3.75 DAL **Chazz Surratt (LB) - North Carolina**
3.76 NYG **Jackson Carmen (OT) - Clemson**
3.77 NE ---**FORFEITED**\---
3.78 LAC **Rodarius Williams (CB) - OK State)
3.79 MIN **Marvin Wilson (DT) - Florida State**
3.80 ARI **Elijah Molden (CB) - Washington**
3.81 LV **Aaron Banks (OG) - Notre Dame**
3.82 MIA **Drake Jackson (IOL) - Kentucky**
3.83 WSH **Cameron Mcgrone (LB) - Michigan**
3.84 CHI **Hamsah Nasirildeen(S) - Florida State**
3.85 IND **Tylan Wallace (WR) - Ok State**
3.86 TEN **Darius Stills (DT) - West Virginia**
3.87 NYJ (via SEA) **Chris Rumph II (DE) - Duke**
3.88 PIT **Javonte Williams (RB) - North Carolina **
3.89 LAR *Baron Browning (LB) - Ohio State**
3.90 CLE **Paris Ford (S) - Pittsburgh**
3.91 MIN (via BAL) **Rashad Weaver (DE) - Pitt**
3.92 CLE (via NO) **Alim Mcniel (DT) - NC State**
3.93 GB **Elijah Moore (WR) - Ole Miss**
3.94 BUF **Brevin Jordan (TE) - Miami**
3.95 TB **Jamie Newman (QB) - Georgia Tech**
3.96 KC ** Tutu Atwell (WR) - Louisville**
**AFC**
**Baltimore Ravens**
1.27 BAL - Patrick Jones II (DE) - Pitt
2.58 BAL - Creed Humphrey (C) - Oklahoma
The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center.
Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits.
**Cincinnati Bengals**
1.12 CIN - Christian Darrisaw(OT) - Virginia Tech(Trade)
2.38 CIN - Jayson Oweh (DE) - Penn State
2.43 CIN - Deonte Brown (OG) - Alabama(TRADE)
3.69 CIN - Seth Williams (WR) - Auburn
The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge.
**Cleveland Browns**
1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa
2.59 CLE - Joe Tryon (DE) - Washington
3.90 CLE - Paris Ford (S) - Pittsburgh
3.92 CLE (via NO) - Alim Mcniel (DT) - NC State
On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds.
**Pittsburgh Steelers**
1.24 PIT - Liam Eichenberg (OT) - Norte Dame
2.55 PIT - Josh Myers (C) - Ohio State
3.88 PIT - Javonte Williams (RB) - North Carolina
With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg and Myers provide elite, cheap fills and can be franchise players. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one. I think Javonte is great value at 88 and can be a huge boost to the backfield.
**Buffalo Bills**
1.30 BUF - Wyatt Davis (OL) - Ohio State
2.62 BUF - Greg Newsome II (CB) - Northwestern
3.94 BUF - Brevin Jordan (TE) - Miami
The Bills are a complete deep that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. Wyatt Davis is an ideal fit for filling one of the holes in the G position that struggled mightily on running. While Dawson Knox ended up filling an important TE spot late in the year, Brevin Jordan provides Josh Allen with an elite NFL prospect that has the potential to be a star.
**Miami Dolphins**
1.03 MIA (via HOU) - Devonta Smith (WR) - Alabama
1.18 MIA - Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas
2.36 MIA (via HOU) - Joseph Ossai (LB) - Texas
2.50 MIA - Travis Etienne (RB) - Clemson
3.82 MIA - Drake Jackson (IOL) - Kentucky
In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority. Drafting Cosmi gives the Dolphins much needed OL depth though they drafted a OT in the first round last year. There is some belief that Cosmi can be placed at guard and will be a help wherever. Finally, Ossai is a perfect fit in the Dolphins D. The do-it-all Edge Rushing OLB will provide the Dolphins D with yet another playmaker.
**New England Patriots**
1.15 NE - Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida
2.46 NE - Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida
Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Pitts provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field. The Patriots have been blessed with Brady long enough and they finally draft his replacement, Kyle Trask.
**New York Jets**
1.02 NYJ - Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon
1.23 NYJ (via SEA) - Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia
2.34 NYJ - Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama
3.66 NYJ - Nico Collins (WR) - Michigan
3.87 NYJ (via SEA) - Chris Rumph II (DE) - Duke
If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. If Robert Saleh decides to stick with his 23-year old QB, Sam Darnold, drafting Sewell and moving either him or Becton to RT might save years on Darnold’s life. While trading down or trading for Watson might be the move the Jets likely do if they decide not to draft a QB, passing on a so-called All-pro level OT is tough decision. Stokes is an elite outside corner fills a much needed hole.
**Houston Texans**
3.67 HOU - Hamilcar Rashed (DE) -Oregon State
Houston we have a problem. Who knows what’s going to happen in Houston, heck, the don’t have a head coach yet. The only thing we do know is that (as a Houstonian myself) they need to make impactful decisions this offseason on Deshaun Watson, JJ Watt, and quite frankly almost the entire roster. I mocked Houston a DE to provide depth on the DL but if they get a blockbuster trade involving Deshaun, we might see them in the top-5.
**Indianapolis Colts**
1.21 IND - Mac Jones (QB) -Alabama
2.54 IND - Teven Jenkins (OT) - Oklahoma State
3.85 IND - Tylan Wallace (WR) - Ok State
Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Mac Jones and Teven Jenkins will be good replacements. Lastly, Tylan Wallace fills depth at WR and is one of the smoothest WR in the class.
**Jacksonville Jaguars**
1.01 JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.25 JAX (via LAR) - Jaelan Phillips (DE) - Miami (FL)
2.33 JAX - Jalen Mayfield (OT) - Michigan
2.45 JAX (via MIN) - Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Penn State
3.65 JAX - Bubba Bolden (S) - Miami
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive. Jaelen Phillips brings an elite edge threat to a team that registered the least amount of sacks last year and Mayfield (Had to draft a Michigan Grad and 2 Miami grads to Urban) will fill a much needed hole on the OL.
**Tennessee Titans**
1.22 TEN - Greg Rousseau (DE) - Miami(FL)
2.53 TEN - Kadarius Toney (WR) - Florida
3.86 TEN - Darius Stills (DT) - West Virginia
By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Greg Rousseau fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency.. Toney has a special combination of speed and quickness that makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field. He shakes defenders with ease when facing man-to-man coverage and has shown the ability to find soft spots against zone. Once the ball is in his hands, Toney kicks it into high gear and often leaves the defense in his dust.
**Denver Broncos**
1.09 DEN - Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech
2.40 DEN - Carlos Basham Jr (DE) - Wake Forest
3.71 DEN - Jabril Cox (LB) - LSU
With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense. On the other side of Fangio’s scheme, his defense is one that allows edge rushers to thrive. Look at the work he’s done specifically in Chicago with Khalil Mack. With Von Miller battling injuries and getting older, the need for a possible future edge rusher has become more apparent for the Broncos. By selecting Basham and Cox, Fangio gets elite depth and pieces that he maneuver all over the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if Broncos all try to go after Teven Jenkins or Jalen Mayfield in the second round if they are available. Though they have JuWuan James returning, they struggled with OL depth last year and need to get more consistent if they are going to compete.
**Kansas City Chiefs**
1.32 KC - Azeez Ojulari (LB) - Georgia
2.64 KC - Ben Cleveland (OG) - Georgia
3.96 KC - Tutu Atwell (WR) - Louisville
One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. At 6-3, 240 pounds, Ojulari might be a better fit for a 3-4 defense, but he can get after quarterbacks with the best of them in this class. A smart defensive coordinator will move him around on defense and let him loose. Cleveland is in his third season at Georgia, playing right guard, and he has not allowed a sack or even a quarterback hit at Georgia. There are also questions about Cleveland's athleticism, but he is looked at as a strong, intelligent player for the Bulldogs at right guard and that could be a nice addition to the Chiefs' interior offensive line, which still has its fair share of struggles. Lastly, by adding Tutu Atwell to the chiefs, you give Mahomes another Tyreek Hill. Atwell (5'9/165) was one of Louisville's most prolific playmakers on the offensive side of the football in 2019. He established a new school record in receiving yards (1,276) and tied the school record in touchdown receptions (12).
**Las Vegas Raiders**
1.17 LV - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - Norte Dame
2.48 LV - Levi Onwuzurike (DT) Washington
3.81 LV - Aaron Banks (OG) - Notre Dame
When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense. JOK is a bit undersized at only 220 pounds, but he is incredibly athletic and quick twitch. On top of that, he is a very smart player and would provide many of the coverage traits that the Raiders thought Littleton would provide. With the Raiders possibly letting go Richie Incognito, Aaron Banks slides in as an instant starter on the OL.
**Los Angeles Chargers**
1.13 LAC - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
2.47 LAC - Landon Dickerson (IOL) - Alabama
3.78 LAC - Rodarius Williams (CB) - OK State
The most important thing this summer, similar to the Bengals, is to protect Burrow at all costs. A big, dominant athlete at the position, Darrisaw is a blast. His footwork is some of the smoothest in the class. In the open field, Darrisaw moves and climbs to the second level with ease and efficiency. Darrisaw immediately slides in at left tackle as a long-term upgrade over Trey Pipkins. Just from a purely schematic standpoint, Darrisaw fits better into a zone-run scheme. His movement ability and experience with the Hokies lends itself to that. It is exciting when you realize that Darrisaw still has room to grow in his frame. In the 47th pick, I selected Landon Dickerson. Center Dan Feeney is not the number one priority to be upgraded upon, but Landon Dickerson is excellent value at this spot. A steady, polished prospect, Dickerson is the definition of a plug-and-play starter. This is a young man that gets push and sets a tone. Lastly, they select Rodarius Williams. It is sad seeing Casey Hayward fall a bit off the proverbial cliff. The man is 31 years old, and now that is the age where many cornerbacks meet their demise. On the positive side of things, Michael Davis is emerging as a real gamer. Chris Harris is still solid inside at the nickel, too. However, cornerback is emerging as a massive need for the Chargers to address.
**NFC**
**Chicago Bears**
1.20 CHI - Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama
2.52 CHI - Terrace Marshal (WR) - LSU
3.84 CHI - Hamsah Nasirildeen(S) - Florida State
Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first.
**Detroit Lions**
1.04 DET - Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State (TRADE)
*Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 fifth*
2.41 DET - Jay Tufele (DT) - USC
With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. While they will most likely receive draft compensation in return, I decided against mocking a trade in this draft. With the Jets deciding to select Sewell, Miami, ATL, and Cinn will all be interested in trading down. Justin Fields comes in as an immediate started and DET gets to keep their second round pick.
**Green Bay Packers**
1.29 GB - Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa
2.61 GB - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) - Florida State
3.93 GB - Elijah Moore (WR) - Ole Miss
Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers.
**Minnesota Vikings**
1.14 MIN - Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina
3.79 MIN - Marvin Wilson (DT) - Florida State
3.91 MIN (via BAL) - Rashad Weaver (DE) - Pitt
With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. The Vikings gave up the second-most passes of 20 or more yards (63), and they lack any sort of elite talent at cornerback. Jaycee Horn would be an immediate upgrade and one of the most impactful picks of my 2021 NFL mock draft. Head Coach Mike Zimmer said that “this years defense was the worst defense he’s ever had”, and I believe they do all they can to reinvigorate their squad.
**Dallas Cowboys**
1.10 DAL - Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama
2.44 DAL - Trevon Moehrig (S) - TCU
3.75 DAL - Chazz Surratt (LB) - North Carolina
Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. If the Cowboys do not keep Chidobe Awuzie they could be in the market for at least two corners. Along with that, the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a safety in the first round since 2002 when the team selected Roy Williams with the eighth overall pick. While linebacker has some talent and depth, being a less premier position, does not hold the value to spend a first-round pick.
**New York Giants**
1.11 NYG - Ja’marr Chase (WR)- LSU
2.42 NYG - Quincy Roche (DE) - Miami
3.76 NYG - Jackson Carmen (OT) - Clemson
I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Ja’Marr Chase might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need.
**Philadelphia Eagles**
1.06 PHI - Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State
2.37 PHI - Rashod Bateman (WR) - Minnesota
3.70 PHI - Paulson Adebo (CB) -Stanford
The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. The Eagles haven’t drafted an off-the-ball linebacker in the first two rounds since 2012 when they took Mychal Kendricks at No. 46 overall. But wow, is Parsons special. He can drop in coverage, wrap up in run defense or get to the QB when turned loose on a blitz. They happen to get unbelievable value at 37th pick with Rashod Bateman. Last year, they took the speedster when they snagged Jalen Reagor at No. 21. In this mock draft, the Eagles find a more complete receiver in Rashod Bateman.
**Washington Football Team**
1.19 WSH - Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama
2.51 WSH - Walker Little (OT) - Stanford
3.74 WSH (via SF) - Andre Cisco (S) - Syracuse
3.83 WSH - Cameron Mcgrone (LB) - Michigan
It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Waddle at 19 is hard to pass up. Walker Little provides much need OL depth and very well could start at RT this upcoming season. Finally, Andre Cisco and Cameron Mcgrone add playmaking abilities to their defense and make their defense an elite force for the 2021 season.
**Atlanta Falcons**
1.07 ATL - Kwity Paye (DE) -Michigan (TRADE)
*Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 fifth*
2.35 ATL - Aaron Robinson (CB) - UCF
3.68 ATL - Dylan Moses (LB) - Alabama
3.72 ATL - Kenneth Gainwell (RB) - Memphis (Trade)
Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe the best idea is to trade down. With Detroit, Carolina, Denver, NE, SF, WFT, and Indy all possibly lining up with a new QB in 2021, ATL can get good value if they want to trade down.
**Carolina Panthers**
1.08 CAR - Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU
2.39 CAR - Nick Bolton (LB) - Missouri
3.73 CAR - Dillon Radunz (OT) North Dakota State
If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level. Finally, Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly. Offensive line is one of the hardest positions to evaluate unless that player is dominating, and it's highly unlikely Sewell will fall to No. 8. There aren't many after him who are guaranteed a first-round grade, so Carolina likely will have to build that area with lower picks.
**New Orleans Saints**
1.28 NO - Tyson Campbell (CB) - Georgia
2.60 NO - Jevon Holland (S) - Oregon
The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Campbell and Holland could help the team for years.
**Tampa Bay Buccaneers**
1.31 TB - Christian Barmore (DT) - Alabama
2.63 TB - Trey Sermon (RB) - Ohio State
3.95 TB -Jamie Newman (QB) - Georgia Tech
The Bucs have a really solid roster. Suh is already 34, so they should look to beef up their defensive line. Christian Barmore is an elite DT prospect with a massive frame that will complement Vita Vea and Such greatly. By adding Sermon, the Bucs gain an elite, powerful back that can be an elite blocker and difference maker. Finally, Jamie Newman at 95 provides Tampa with a solid back-up that can be a quality starter in a few years once Tom Brady is retired.
**Arizona Cardinals**
1.16 ARI - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) - USC
2.49 ARI - Rondale Moore (WR) - Purdue
3.80 ARI - Elijah Molden (CB) - Washington
There’s a good chance they go defense here with 14, but we know Arizona is an offensive team first, and that’s where the priority is. Alijah Vera-Tucker will hold the middle, protect Kyler Murray, and solidify the base. With Horn, Surtain, and Farley, all selected before their choice, look for the Cardinals to select a player to help solidify their OL. At the 49th pick, Arizona takes an elite WR that very could be taken in round 1.
**Los Angeles Rams**
2.57 LAR - Trey Smith (OL) - Tennessee
3.89 LAR - Baron Browning (LB) - Ohio State
Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. Trey Smith is an elite run blocking guard and though he played mostly inside, he can be flexed on the outside if needed. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Baron Browning is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker.
**San Francisco 49ers**
1.05 SF - Zach Wilson (QB)- BYU (TRADE)
*SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.12*
San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others. If I was the 49ers GM, you have many options but none more complimented than the QB. Garoppolo has a $26.9 million salary-cap hit next season, and it only costs $2.8 million to cut him. At this point, it's far from a guarantee Jimmy G plays quarterback for the 49ers in 2021.
**Seattle Seahawks**
2.56 SEA - Shaun Wade (CB) - Ohio State
Seattle only has one pick in the first 3 rounds and they drastically need to improve their secondary. Ohio State defensive back Shaun Wade will be a hotly contested prospect after seeing his fair share of successes and failures with the Buckeyes program. Wade burst onto the scene as a dynamic freshman and starred in a nickel corner role for a Buckeyes secondary that was loaded with talent throughout the course of his first two seasons in Columbus. But Wade’s junior season saw a transition to the perimeter and a fair share of struggles with life on the outside, calling into question whether or not Wade can play on the boundary and whether or not he’s destined for a role as a nickel or safety. Based on Wade’s 2020 play, a transition to strong safety feels like a safe bet to maximize his athletic skills, length, and hitting power without tasking him to cover too much ground or play on an island in coverage. Wade’s ceiling really shines when he’s able to be protected vertically, so even if he went into the pros as a cornerback, he’d be best suited to play in a two-deep variation. In all, Wade has plenty of potential; but after three seasons in Columbus, he feels no closer to reaching it and a position change may be his best ticket to getting there.
Heyo. I've (for some reason) decided to venture out into creating a mock of the entire offseason (up to the draft). It's taken me quite a while, but it has been an interesting exercise. Note that I am not a cap expert by any means. But I used overthecap for all my figures and have taken a stab at what I think teams should/would do. Let me know if I misunderstood something. Draft order from Tankathon.
Full mock available
here Team by team notes:
NFC NORTH GB This scenario has the packers losing in the NFC Championship game. With limited cap space, there are some crucial cap actions taken. Trading/cutting Rodgers would free up the most space, but he's having an MVP year and Jordan Love is still on the bench behind Tim Boyle. Preston Smith is cut, freeing up $12M. While Smith was phenomenal in 2019, he's taken a step back this year with only 4 sacks compared to the 10.5 he had at this same point last year. 2nd year man Rashan Gary has taken a step up as well, starting the last 2 games and totaling the same amount of sacks on nearly half the snaps. WR Davante Adams also only has one year on his deal, so an extension is obvious. That should free up some cap this year (I've estimated $4M). Lazard and Tonyan are also retained on minimal deals.
In the draft, the Packers have several needs to address. In the 1st, I gave them WR Rondale Moore, who I think is the perfect compliment to Adams. Moore should excel in the slot, and his ability to take any catch to the house will open up the playbook for Rodgers and Adams. Randunz is the next acquisition. This allows the Packers to slide Billy Turner into RG, filling some of the interior void left by Linsley's departure. Onwuzurike, Jack Jones, and Werner fill obvious needs. Borghi is a pick to fill out the RB corps. I expect Dillon to be the lead back in 2021, but the 250 lbs back only had 21 career receptions. Borghi should be the perfect spell to Dillon. He had 4x the receiving work in 2019 alone.
MIN In the current standings, the Vikes are the 7th seed. Cousins's play over the last month has bolstered the team's confidence in him, and a move can be made to compete in 2021. By cutting Reiff and Rudolph, the team frees nearly $20M in cap, giving them room to re-sign Odenigbo and Dozier, two under the radar players who have been solid for us in 2020. Andy Dalton comes in to be the backup to Cousins, and John Miller will compete at RG as we move Ezra Cleveland to LT.
With safety unaddressed in free agency, Jevon Holland is an obvious first round pick. Holland is a smart, physical player. While he hasn't shown super versatile tape at Oregon, I believe he has the athleticism to succeed in either safety spot. Zion Johnson, Charlie Kolar, and Dante Stills add depth to three positions that need it. Rakeem Boyd at 201 was a value pick to me. It'll give us flexibility when Mattison's contract is up.
CHI Chicago has had a miraculous fall from grace. The offseason begins with a complete overhaul in the front office. Pace is coasting off the Mack trade and Fangio's subsequent work with the defense, but his failures in the QB room are inexcusable. Robert Saleh comes in to lead the team, getting the Bears back to the formula that has proven successful over the history of their franchise: defense. He brings Anthony Lynn in to run the offense, a coach that will get the most out of the running game.
The big move for the bears is the acquisition of Carson Wentz. I wasn't sure what Wentz's price would be, but the Bears move from 44 to 70 and give up a future 5th to pick up Wentz and his monstrous contract. Wentz has proven in the past that he can be an MVP caliber player. With a strong defense and a run-oriented offense, the hope is for Wentz to be able to manage the game early in Chicago to re-build his confidence. The team also brings in Corey Davis to replace Allen Robinson. While Davis isn't the dominant alpha he was drafted to be, he proved this year that he can be a solid player that frees up space for someone like Darnell Mooney.
Finding a QB via trade gives the Bears the chance to draft Alex Leatherwood to replace the now-cut Bobby Massie at OT. Atwell in the 3rd gives the Bears a dangerous weapon to play next to Davis, and Ford should challenge Gipson for starting reps early. This draft focuses on building Saleh's dream team.
DET The second team in the division to overhaul their staff, the Lions lure Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma. Riley brings in an experienced Thomas Dimitroff, who built multiple great teams in Atlanta, to take care of the finer details, and Mike Smith comes in to run the defense. Riley is a young coach that will get the most out of Stafford and his young offense. He'll implement a creative passing attack complimented by a dangerous duo on the ground.
The big move of the offseason is franchise tagging Kenny Golladay. Golladay is a talented WR in the prime of his career. This team shouldn't let him walk. But with a new regime and with Golladay coming off an injury-riddled year, a one year prove it deal makes sense for both sides. Nicholas Williams, Danny Shelton, and Christian Jones are all cut as well, creating over $12M in cap space.
With Golladay retained, there are no obvious holes in the starting offensive lineup. At 12, they get a call from New Orleans with an offer akin to what the Bills got in the Mahomes trade. While Marvin Wilson, Caleb Farley, and Joseph Ossai are tempting, so is the chance to build a long term future for this team. At 31, the Lions draft LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah out of Notre Dame. JOK is an athletic LB with plenty of experience starting. He and Christian Barmore are instant starters for this lackluster front. Kadarius Toney comes in to compliment Golladay. A bit of an older prospect, Toney is a dynamic athlete that gives the Riley a fun toy. Watson in the 3rd will rotate across from Flowers. And D'Eriq King at 132 is an interesting project for this team. King has all the talent in the world, and he's having a good year at Miami. He's just inconsistent. There is a chance he's the heir to Stafford in the Motor City.
NFC WEST LAR The Rams are in a bit of a tight spot cap wise. With so much money tied into just a handful of players, Les Snead is forced to let a lot of key contributors go. Whitworth retires, and A'Shawn Robinson is cut. Higbee, Woods, and Kupp are asked to restructure their deals. Darious Williams gets an RFA tender to stay with the team, and Riley Reiff is brought in to replace Whitworth at LT.
In the draft, the Rams must focus on filling out the spots on their roster that aren't supported by one of the 4 or 5 superstars on the team. Victor Dimukeje is the first pick, addressing an edge spot. Deonte Brown gives the team some flexibility with Blythe leaving in FA. The rest of the draft are prospects we hope to take over in a couple years.
SEA The Seahawks are in a bit of a surprising spot as one of the only powerhouse teams with a plethora of cap space. That cap space allows them to retain several key free agents, including the Griffin brothers, Geno Smith, Ethan Pocic, and Chris Carson. They also have the space to extend Lockett and Jamal Adams on front loaded deals. Unfortunately, the Seahawks only have four picks in this draft. They need to make the most out of those picks, adding a pass rusher, a depth CB, an OL, and a potential WR3.
ARI The Cardinals are oh so close to being a real threat. They retain a couple key free agents in Patrick Peterson and Hasaan Reddick, while adding Jamaal Williams to utilize alongside Edmonds. Bashaud Breeland is also added. He has played well in spurts in KC and should compete with a rookie to be the starter opposite Peterson in nickel and dime.
With only 5 picks in the draft and with the top 2 CBs off the board at 15, the Cardinals are looking to trade down. The Jets send over an offer, the Arizona netting the 2.33 and 5.161 to move down 10 spots. That allows the team to add lauded Gamecocks CB Jaycee Horn as well as a mauler in Trey Smith. Brevin Jordan and Tamorrion Terry join the skill position group, giving the team options with Fitzgerald gone and Kirk in a contract year. The rest of the draft adds depth to the defense.
SF I debated moving Garroppolo, but I think he works well in the Shanahan offense and deserves a chance to play healthy ball. Instead, I have the 9ers trading for S Malcolm Jenkins to lead the secondary. Richard Sherman also returns on a team friendly deal, along with Trent Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, and Nick Mullens. Dee Ford is cut, freeing $16M in cap space. And Todd Gurley is added on a cheap deal to fill out a RB corps with almost everybody leaving in FA.
The 9ers are true to their needs in the draft. They stop Caleb Farley's freefall at 14 before grabbing a starting center in the 2nd. Then they double down on CB again before adding a depth edge rusher and a WR3. Felton and Mond are interesting prospects that should be given the chance to learn.
NFC SOUTH NO The Saints are in cap hell. No doubt about it. So a lot of my moves were to try to relinquish them from that terrible spot. After 2 injury riddled seasons, Drew Brees retires. A number of cuts are made to key players with big cap numbers, including Kwon Alexander ($13.4M), Janoris Jenkins ($10M), Nick Easton ($6M), David Onyemata ($7.5M), and Malcolm Brown ($5M). Lattimore and Ramczyk are extended, freeing up a bit of 2021 space and kicking the can down the road.
In the draft, I made a move that I'm sure will go unquestioned by Saints fans: I traded the farm for Zach Wilson. In a package similar to the Chiefs' trade up for Mahomes, the Saints give a future 1st along with this year's 2nd and 4th to to move to 12 to draft Wilson ahead of the Bears and 49ers. I know that Taysom Hill has been effective as the starting QB in Brees's absence, but I still have doubts about his long term viability. Wilson gives them a bit more. He's got a super consistent arm and is strong on the ground. His rookie deal gives the Saints the chance to build a powerhouse again. He, Ramczyk, Lattimore, Kamara, and Thomas will be the future of the Saints.
New Orleans spends the rest of the draft addressing their depth chart. Vincent can push for a starting role. Coxie adds to a depleted WR corps. Smith, Landman, and Jones join a defense with plenty of established leaders.
TB The big news with the Bucs is that Brady is back. That gives this whole team one more shot at running the table. With a good amount of cap space, the team is able to re-sign Godwin and David to long term deals. Sheldon Rankins and Le'Veon Bell join the team as well to replace the departed Suh and Fournette, respectively. However, Shaquille Barrett is a free agent departure, chasing greener (read: money) pastures in Boston.
The focus on the draft is to find players that will help the team win now. In the 1st round, Quincy Roche from Miami is the choice. Roche is a well-developed edge rusher with a wide variety of moves to beat OTs. He should start across from JPP immediately. Etienne is the second pick. While Ronald Jones and Le'Veon Bell are a formidable duo, Etienne is something else. He's an uber talented back that can do everything you want in a bellcow. He'll challenge for RB1 snaps early. Mayfield falls to the Bucs at 84; he'll spend a year learning from Donovan Smith before taking over at LT. Robertson and Ferguson address depth needs. Thomas and Bryant are an attempt to find some upside players that can be efficient rotating into the lineup. And Franks is a Mr. Irrelevant with a cannon arm that is a pure upside dart throw
ATL The first thing to discuss with Atlanta is their revamped front office. Nick Caserio comes over from New England, and he brings along with him Chiefs' ST coordinator Dave Toub to take over as head coach. Toub runs a stout unit in KC, and he should be able to enforce some discipline to a lackluster group. He brings in Matt Nagy to run the offense and Anthony Weaver to run the defense.
The offseason is one dedicated to building a team in Toub's mold. Overpaid and underproductive, Dante Fowler, Ricardo Allen, Allen Bailey, and James Carpenter all get the boot. Kenyan Drake is brought in to start at RB, and Romeo Okwara comes over from a quietly solid year in Detroit.
The draft for Atlanta is about maintaining a solid core this year while finding pieces for the future. They select the first edge rusher of the class, Michigan's Kwity Paye. Paye is an athletic freak that has managed to turn upside into actual production in his 2020 campaign. They also add Mac Jones in the 2nd round, giving the team options if/when Matt Ryan hangs it up. Adebo in the 3rd and Sterns in the 4th are physical players that can push for starting time while playing Toub's brand of football. Zamir White at 149 adds youth to an older RB group.
CAR Matt Rhule has built a solid team in Charlotte. The wins aren't always there, but the team plays tough and has a great foundation. Rhule's first task of the offseason is to replace Joe Brady. He does so by promoting OL coach Pat Meyer, who has been coaching on the offensive side of the ball for over a decade. They retain their OT duo in Okung and Moton with a pair of big contracts, and they manage to bring back Mike Davis.
The first 6 picks of the draft fall perfectly for the Panthers. Micah Parsons is the best defender in the draft, and the Panthers have been abysmal at LB without Kuechly. Vera-Tucker in the 2nd gives the team a new starter at OG, while Newsome, Wiggins, and Taylor give the team the ability to show different personnel groupings.
NFC EAST NYG The Giants are having a good year under Joe Judge. So good that Dave Gettleman actually keeps his job. The first act of the offseason? Cutting Kevin Zeitler. While Zeitler has been a solid player for the G-men, he frees $12M in cap space, giving them room to sign Leonard Williams, Logan Ryan, and Kyler Fackrell to long term deals.
The draft is where Judge and Gettleman build on the strong foundation they have. Ossai is a mammoth pass rusher that reminds me of Z Smith. Patrick Graham should have a lot of fun with him. And Tylan Wallace, while he won't be confused with Ja'Marr Chase, is an underrated route runner with an excellent catch radius. The rest of the draft fills out the starting lineup while also finding good value.
WAS Ron Rivera has built a strong team in DC. He'll keep the core of his team while making a couple splash moves. First is retention. With plenty of cap space, the Football Team is able to sign Scherff, Darby, and Hopkins to long term deals. They also trade a 6th rounder for Emmanuel Sanders to help the Saints get out of cap hell, and they are able to attract a few key free agents: LB Jayon Brown, TE Zach Ertz, and OT Matt Feiler. This leaves Rivera without too many needs going into the draft.
That allows Rivera to make a big move: trading up for Trey Lance. Yes the Football team gives up a handful of picks including two 2nds to move up for their franchise QB. While some prefer Wilson, I think Lance is the perfect prospect to sit behind Alex Smith (who is actually my pro comp for him). He'll learn from the same mind that molded Patrick Mahomes, taking over the reigns once Rivera is confident in him. The rest of the Washington draft is a solid group of supporting cast. Carman is a solid OT for Clemson, and McGrone can get some quality reps in as a rookie. Tre Walker should usurp Cam/Steven Sims as the WR3 and Hufanga gives the team some flexibility on defense.
PHI This Eagles team is a really hard one to predict. I'm choosing one particular path this time, but things could just as easily move in a day or two. For now, Pederson and Roseman's SB win gets them another year with the team. However, Hurts's upward climb puts Carson Wentz on the outs. I'm not sure what Wentz's price will be, but the Eagles are just trying to free some cap. They offload his contract to the Bears for a move up the draft board from 70 to 44, as well as a conditional 5th.
This offseason also has a ton of cuts for Philly. On top of Kelce's retirement, Goodwin, Jeffery, DeSean, Ertz, and Malik Jackson are cut. Barnett is extended and Graham's deal is restructured. This just barely gets the team in the black. They don't have any room to sign free agents.
With heavy turnover in free agency, the draft should be focused on getting help for Jalen Hurts. Ja'Marr Chase at 6 is perhaps the easiest way to do so. Chase is a better prospect than any of the WRs from last year's class, and he and Reagor will form the best young WR duo in the league. Myers in the 2nd gives the team a replacement for Kelce, and Moses shortly afterward replaces Nate Gerry. The rest of the draft adds depth, with some very good value picks in Teague and Clemons.
DAL The Cowboys start the offseason by firing Mike Nolan and hiring McCarthy's old buddy Dom Capers to run the defense. Their next priority is retaining Dak Prescott, and they'll let everyone else walk to get it done. Dak signs a long term deal for $38.5M a year, giving this team a strong offensive core to build around.
In the draft, Dallas addresses their terrible defense. Surtain is the pick at 1.04, reuniting the 2019 Crimson secondary. Moehrig is a dynamic safety that will continue improving their defense. Slater in the 3rd is a solid depth piece to play swing tackle and possibly OG for the Boys. Jamie Newman in the 4th is a fun pick. He's a raw talent with a very inconsistent arm. But there is hope that he'll get his arm in check and develop into a very capable QB behind Dak.
AFC NORTH PIT With the best record in the league, the Steelers are currently slated to win the SB. That means a lot of beer, and a lot of turnover. Ebron and Vince Williams are cut, making room for extensions for Watt and Fitzpatrick. DeCastro and Tuitt are restructured and Villanueva returns on a cheap deal. After a joke in April that he's already bought a beach house in Malibu, Ben stays for another year.
The draft is focused on getting cheap talent to supplement a strong defense centered around Watt, Fitzpatrick, and Bush. The Steelers trade out of their 1st round pick, adding a 4th and a future pick. At 2.40, they draft local TE Pat Freiermuth, the most well rounded prospect of the class. They then turn around and draft UNC's Javonte Williams to be the new lead back. Williams is a dynamic runner with a powerful mindset that should thrive in the Steel City. Christensen and Hutcherson provide a youth resurgence to the oldest OL in the league, and Desmond Ridder in the 4th is yet another attempt to find an eventual Big Ben replacement. With Jordan Berry having a poor couple years, the Steelers also add Oscar Bradburn in the 7th.
CLE It's 2020 and the Browns finish ahead of the Ravens. Well in this scenario, Cleveland has plenty of cap to spend. And they are going to get the most out of it before Mayfield, Chubb, and Ward are due for new deals. They re-sign Malcolm Smith to anchor their LB corps while shelling out money for two former Vikings (Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Harris) and adding Smith's former teammate (KJ Wright). They also manage to offload Njoku's $6M deal to the Jets for a 5th round pick.
In the draft, Cleveland fortifies their flawed defense. Jaylen Twynam out of Pitt is the first pick and is the obvious long term replacement for both Richardson and Ogunjobi. Carlos Basham from Wake falls to 60, where the Browns take him to play opposite DROY candidate Myles Garrett. Seth Williams sneaks into the 3rd. He'll be an interesting red zone guy for CLE. The rest of the draft addresses several depth needs on defense. Trey Sermon in the 5th gives this team flexibility to let either Chubb or Hunt walk when their deals expire. And Ian Book is an interesting late round pick to be the long term backup QB.
BAL While the Ravens were unable to follow up their 2019 success, they do have plenty of cap to make a move for 2020. They retain a lot of their talent, including Jimmy Smith and RGIII. They cut Mark Ingram for $5M as well. There are two big moves in Baltimore though: re-signing Yannick Ngakoue for a below market deal and pulling Allen Robinson over from Chicago. The former will give the Ravens a true edge rusher for the next 3 years while the latter finally give Baltimore a chain mover on the outside.
Baltimore plays the draft how they usually do: excellently. They draft Wyatt Davis in the 1st, finding an actual replacement for the now 200 lbs Marshall Yanda. In the 2nd, they get a good deal with Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson, a high floor technical pass rusher to replace Matthew Judon. Garrett, Lake, and Fisher give the Ravens flexibility with the impending free agency status of guys like Brandon Williams, DeShone Elliott, and LJ Fort.
CIN While I'm not sure Zac Taylor is the answer, history has shown that Mike Brown will sit on an inept coach for years. Something that does change is the firing of DC Lou Anarumo, who is replaced by PIT DL coach Karl Dunbar.
There are a couple obvious moves as the Bengals enter free agency. First is to cut OT and flat earth/anti vax enthusiast Bobby Hart, freeing $5.9M in cap. Then Williams Jackson is signed to a long term deal paying him $17.5M a year. Mike Brown lures matthew Judon away from Baltimore, adding a pass rusher that is much needed for this defense. And Marcus Mariota comes over on a cheaper deal to be the backup to Burrow.
At 1.03 the pick is obvious for Cincy: Oregon's Penei Sewell. Zaven Collins in the 2nd is a pick I quite like as well. He's a rangy LB that should give the middle of the defense a much needed face lift. And Patrick Jones in the 3rd should rotate in behind Hubbard and Judon as an effective edge player.
AFC WEST KC The 2019 Champs are a bit tight on cap this offseason, but they can easily free some space up by extending/restructuring Tyrann Mathieu and Eric Fisher. They also retain Demarcus Robinson on a cheap deal. They also have to contend with replacing OC Eric Bieniemy and ST Dave Toub, both of whom are now HCs. They do so by internally promoting QB coach Mike Kafka and Asst. ST coach Andy Hill.
In the draft, Andy Reid finds a local kid that can maul guys in Creed Humphrey. Sage Surratt, who is a skyscraper of a man, is a solid choice in the 2nd with so many WRs leaving in free agency. And Shaka Toney in the 3rd is an upside player that can rotate into the lineup. Hubbard falling all the way to 177 was a deal that was too good to pass up on. He fills the role left by Le'Veon Bell.
LV Even though they are in a good spot cap-wise, the Raiders have a few obvious moves. Tyrell Williams, Marcus Mariota, and Richie Incognito are all cut, freeing over $28M in cap. Nelson Agholor and Devontae Booker, two surprisingly good free agent acquisitions last year, are both retained on multi-year deals. And Roy Robertson-Harris is signed from Chicago. This gives the Raiders some flexibility going into the draft.
With their first pick, they take my favorite DT in the class: FSU's Marvin Wilson. Wilson is a highly disruptive player that can play all over the DL. He's had a quiet year, but he will surely blow up the Combine. They also add Kyle Trask in the 2nd round. While Derek Carr has been good, Trask gives the Raiders a second option should they try to pin the blame for a disappointing season on someone. LeCounte in the 3rd is a great value in my book. He's a rangy playmaker that can start opposite Abram.
DEN I think the team gives Elway and Fangio one more shot. Which in turn means that Drew Lock should be getting another year. The team focuses on giving Lock what he needs to succeed. They re-sign Tim Patrick and place cheap tenders on Alexander Johnson and Phillip Lindsay. They add S Marcus Williams to replace Justin Simmons and add Austin Blythe to take over at center. Trubisky comes in as a cheap backup as well.
Denver has a few key needs to address in the draft. In the 1st, they draft Samuel Cosmi to play RT. Cosmi is a bit raw, but he's got some solid tools and is a big upgrade over Demar Dotson. Then they add Eric Stokes in the 2nd to get younger in the secondary. Jabril Cox comes in to play next to Johnson, and Gainwell is a great value pick that gives the team flexibility with both Gordon and Lindsay on 1 year deals.
LAC The Chargers are a team I have firing their coaching staff. While Lynn is a very likeable guy, he just isn't cutting it as the head coach. Instead, Telesco brings in Eric Bieniemy, who retains Gus Bradley on defense and brings over Michael Clay from SF to coach the special teams. Bieniemy is the cream of the crop this offseason, and he'll get the chance to work with perhaps the best young QB in the league.
The Bolts make some big moves in free agency. They extend Mike Williams and Casey Hayward and re-sign Henry and Ingram. They also bring in Corey Linsley to take over at center, as well as Winston and Fournette as backup players.
In the draft, the Chargers trade out of the 4th pick in exchance for a pair of 2nds and some later picks. This lets them draft OT Christian Darrisaw at 11, one of my favorite linemen in the draft. They also add Amon-Ra St. Brown and Deommodore Lenoir in the 2nd, two players that should see significant snaps as rookies. The rest of the class is largely spent providing depth to a defense whose money is largely spent on Joey Bosa. They also add a punter in the 6th to improve what might be the worst special teams unit of all time.
AFC SOUTH TEN The Titans don't have too splashy of an offseason here. They do lose OC Arthur Smith to a HC gig, but they bring Tim Kelly over from Houston to coach an offense that includes his brother. They also hire Joe Houston from New England to take over an atrocious special teams unit.
Free agency is quiet. The team re-signs Ty Sambrailo, Anthony Firkser, and Khari Blasingame. They also sign Eric Wilson from Minnesota. The big losses are TE Jonnu Smith, WR Corey Davis, and LB Jayon Brown.
The draft is where the Titans bolster their defense. They draft Penn State's Jayson Oweh in the first. He's a high upside pass rusher that should provide more of a presence than Clowney ever did. Chris Olave is a player I really like to replace CD's production. Jon Robinson doubles down at EDGE with Joe Tryon in the 3rd before addressing some needs with Molden, Eubanks, and Tonga. They are also the first team to draft a kicker, grabbing Evan McPherson out of Florida. McPherson has hit all but one career PAT, and he's got a career 86.8%, including two seasons of 89.5%.
IND In the front office, the Colts lose DC Matt Eberflus to the Texans. To replace him, they hire Raheem Morris, who has put together a decent turnaround in Atlanta. With all of the cap space available to the team, the Colts are active in retaining talent. They bring back Rivers, Houston, and Autry. Then they extend Quenton Nelson and restructure Anthony Castonzo to free up even more money. They add Janoris Jenkins and Will Fuller in free agency, replacing Xavier Rhodes and TY Hilton. They do make a move for Sam Darnold, giving up a 3rd round pick to see if the former Trojan can be fixed by the QB guru that is Frank Reich.
The Colts address their needs in the draft. Shaun Wade's underwhelming season playing outside corner has him falling to Indy at 23. They then add Terrace Marshall in the 2nd, giving them one of the best young WR groups in the league. Koonce is a developmental prospect in the 3rd; he can hopefully take over for Houston when the time comes.
HOU The Texans have a busy offseason. The bring Scot Fitterer from Seattle to sit in an actual general manager position. In turn, he hires Colts DC Matt Eberflus, who has gotten elite production from subpar talent during his time in Indy. Scot Linehan comes in to run the offense.
With the cap not doing anyone any favors, the Texans cut Duke Johnson and Brandon Dunn, freeing nearly $9M. They get the most out of their limited draft as well. They add Asante Samuel Jr in the 3rd and Nico Collins in the 4th, adding depth to two depleted positions. Ronnie Perkins rotates across from Watt and Martin, and Kylin Hill gives a bit of dynamics that David Johnson doesn't have.
JAX While Doug Marrone still has a job, I have little doubt that he'll be unemployed come January. Instead, the Jags land the dream team in the front office. They pry George Paton (who has turned down multiple GM jobs) from Minnesota and hire the hottest hand in the league, Joe Brady, away from Carolina to run the team. Brady hires NO TE coach Dan Campbell to help him on offense and DL guru Andre Patterson from the Vikes to coach the defense. He also brings Phil Galiano from New Orleans to coach the special teams.
With over $80M in cap space and a new front office, the Jags are busy. They re-sign Keelan Cole and Cam Robinson. They also bring in Jacoby Brissett to mentor whatever QB they draft. Then they sign CB Troy Hill, TE Gerald Everett, and S Justin Simmons to big deals, addressing three big needs before draft night.
The draft goes swimmingly for Paton and crew. They make the obvious pick of Justin Fields at 2 overall, followed by Kyle Pitts at 26. Jay Tufele is a year removed from the football field, but he's one of the best DT prospects in the class. Kendrick is quietly having a solid year for Clemson, and Ar'Darius Washington falling to 66 is a steal for the Jaguars. They add depth in the later rounds with Dyami Brown, Michael Carter, and Monty Rice.
AFC EAST BUF The Bills start the offseason by freeing up cap space. They cut Quinton Jefferson, Lee Smith, and Vernon Butler, creating over $17M in space. They also re-sign Matt Milano to a big deal and restructure WR John Brown. Jonnu Smith comes over in free agency, replacing Tyler Kroft.
The draft sees the Bills add a big time athlete in CB Tyson Campbell. He may not be ready to start on day 1, but Campbell's profile is amazing for the position. They also add Jaelen Phillips in the 2nd and iOL Ben Cleveland in the 3rd, two pieces that should push for time as rookies.
MIA Miami has built a solid team centered around a stout secondary and an elite special teams unit. While Tua hasn't been perfect, he has flashed the ability to win in the league. The Dolphins need to be stable around him. They bring back Fitzpatrick, Karras, and Haack. In the draft, the Phins are busy. They add local edge rusher Greg Rousseau at 9 overall. Rousseau is an uber talented athlete with lots of positional versatility. Then they come back at 22 and give Tua his old Bama teammate in Jaylen Waddle. I then got a bit aggressive to secure the 5th year option, trading up to 32 for another Bama kid: RB Najee Harris. While others might favor Etienne, Harris is the far superior runner between the tackles and is the most dynamic receiving RB I've ever seen. Chazz Surratt is an upside add in the 2nd, with Cisco not too far behind. Both are super instinctive defenders that should thrive under Flores.
NE The Patriots are a bit hard to predict. They'll have Hightower, Chubg, LaCosse, and others return after an opt out season. But their big concerns are on offense. I've chosen to re-sign Cam Newton to a mid-level deal ($15M/year) and surround him with players that actually deserve to be on an NFL roster. They retain JC Jackson, James White, Deathrich Wise, Nick Folk, and Jakob Johnson. They also spend big money on Shaq Barrett on defense while reaching a cheap deal with JuJu Smith-Schuster.
In the draft, the Pats build from the ground up. They draft Minnesota's Rashod Bateman in the 1st. He is a big bodied route runner that should work well across from JuJu. Then they add a big run stuffer in Tyler Shelvin before adding depth in the middle of their defense with Moore and Harvell-Peel. Justyn Ross is a risky add medically, but at 134 Billy B is willing to take the chance. When healthy, Ross is a good red zone target.
NYJ One of the most exciting offseason teams, the Jets are busy this year. Joe Douglas fires Adam Gase after going 0-16 and replaces him with the Titans' Arthur Smith, who adds Chuck Pagano to coach the defense and TJ Weist to work with the special teams. Smith has done incredible work in Nashville, getting top 10 production out of Ryan Tannehill and allowing Derrick Henry to break the game.
The first move of the offseason is to get rid of Darnold. The Colts are kind enough to offer a 3rd rounder for him. The Jets then send a 5th to the Browns for TE David Njoku before re-signing Brian Poole and Marcus Maye. In free agency, JD is eager to spend money. He signs Thuney to play guard, Dupree to rush the passer, Mike Hilton to start in the secondary, and Aaron Jones to take over for Frank Gore.
They don't just sit back in the draft either. After making the obvious pick of Trevor Lawrence at 1 overall, the Jets trade up with Arizona to take Devonta Smith at 15. Some are arguing that Smith is better than even Ja'Marr Chase at the WR position, so despite the depth of the class this is a move that is worth making. They then add another behemoth OT in Daniel Faalele before adding depth on defense.
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